Finding Value in the MLB Draft (Round 7)
Understanding how successful MLB teams have been at finding value with their seventh round picks from the beginning of the draft era to now (1965-Present).
(Imaged Credit: Ronald C. Modra/Getty Images)
Background
Welcome back to the “Finding Value in the MLB Draft” series where I aim to identify which teams have accumulated the most value within a specific round in the draft. In this article, I will dive into round seven. Just like every other round up to this point, round seven has made way for plenty of impactful players. Wade Boggs who was drafted 166th overall in the 1976 Draft by the Boston Red Sox leads all players in terms of accumulated WAR within this round. Boggs proved his worth from the moment he stepped on the diamond. In 18 seasons with three different teams, Boggs put forth a slash line of .328/.415/.443. He also earned 12 All-Star Game appearances, 8 Silver Sluggers, and 5 Batting Titles. Overall, Boggs was an all-star caliber throughout the entirety of his career (6.1 Avg. WAR). In round seven, the average accumulated WAR is 3.57 (a 0.3 decrease from round six). Across all 30 MLB teams, the average value found within this round is 5.79% (approximately a 0.5 decrease from round 6). As we progress another round further in this research, what will I be looking to uncover? Like always, what will be the composition of the top five teams within this round (new or recurring)? For the teams who make the cut for the first time, what was the reasoning behind them failing to make a cut before? Will the Athletics keep their foot on the gas and remain in control at the top of the leaderboard? Within the value found for each team, how many of those players had a real impact on the team? As always, I will identify the players on the top five teams who have returned the most value for their respective teams. I hope you enjoy Part 7 of “Finding Value in the MLB Draft!” Note: A player that has an average WAR below 2 is considered a below-average player, a WAR above 2 is an above-average player, and a WAR at or above 5 is an all-star caliber player.
If you have missed any of the previous articles, you could find them below:
1. Los Angeles Angels (1965-Present)- 12.50% Value
The Los Angeles Angels rank first among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the seventh round. For the Angels, this is the second time that they are making an appearance in this series. They have also performed well in round four where they ranked second. Through seven rounds, the average value found for the Angels is 12.32% putting them in second place among all MLB teams. Within the seventh round, the Angels have found value in seven of their fifty-six selections. Of these seven value picks, four have been pitchers. Throughout their draft history, the Angels have had some success in finding pitching prospects who would go on to be quality big leaguers. The Angels have seen 171 of their drafted pitchers make it to MLB. The average WAR of all those pitchers is 4.27 (4th in MLB). One example of those pitchers from the seventh round is Marty Pattin (20.2 WAR). In 13 seasons, Pattin posted an ERA of 3.62 in 2038.2 IP. However, none of those innings were with the Angels as he landed on the Seattle Mariners via the 1968 expansion draft. Overall, Pattin was an above-average player throughout his career (2.1 Avg. WAR). Some of the other players drafted by the Angels within this round include Aaron Hill (24.4 WAR) and Jim Edmonds (60.4 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Angels within this round.
Jim Edmonds tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Angels within this round. Edmonds who was the 169th overall pick in the 1988 Draft played with the Angels for seven seasons. In that time, Edmonds posted a slash line of .290/.359/.498. He also tacked on an All-Star Game appearance and 2 Gold Gloves. Overall, Edmonds was nearly an all-star caliber player throughout his 17-year career (4.9 Avg. WAR). Elsewhere on this list, Rich Hill required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 209th overall pick in the 2001 Draft. Hill would start his career with the Cubs but would go on to play for the Angels later on in his career. However, he only threw 19 pitches before getting released soon after. Overall, Hill has been an above-average player throughout his 18-year career which is still in progress (2.1 Avg. WAR).
2. Cleveland Indians/Guardians (1965-Present)- 12.50% Value
The Cleveland Indians/Guardians rank second among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the seventh round. For the Guardians, this is the first time that they are making an appearance in this series. Up to this point, the Guardians had finished as high as 7th (Round 4) but as low as 29th (Round 1) relative to other teams. Overall, they have been a below-average team in terms of finding value within this portion of the draft (19th in MLB). Within the seventh round, the Guardians have found value in seven of their fifty-six selections. More specifically, the Guardians have had the most success when picking from the 10th slot in this round. The Guardians have picked from this slot four times and have found value in three of those selections. Larry Andersen (13.9 WAR), Russell Branyan, (11.2 WAR), and Mike Young (6.4 WAR) all exceed the average WAR at this draft slot. Young never suited up for the Guardians throughout his 8-year career but proved to be a below-average player (1.6 Avg. WAR). Andersen spent three seasons with the Guardians and posted a 5.40 ERA. Overall, he was also a below-average player (1.4 Avg. WAR). Branyan outlasted his counterparts in terms of his tenure with the Guardians. However, in six seasons with the team, Branyan posted a lackluster slash line of .232/.311/.472. Overall, he was a below-average player (1.7 Avg. WAR). Some of the other players drafted by the Guardians within this round include David Bell (15.2 WAR) and Von Hayes (29.9 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Guardians within this round.
Von Hayes tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Guardians within this round. Hayes who was the 163rd overall pick in the 1979 Draft played with the Guardians for two seasons. He posted a .252/.316/.390 slash line. He did most of his damage with the Phillies where he spent nine seasons. He earned an All-Star Game appearance while there. Throughout his 12-year career, he was an above-average player (3.2 Avg. WAR).
3. Cincinnati Reds (1965-Present)- 10.71% Value
The Cincinnati Reds rank third among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the seventh round. For the Reds, this is the second time that they are making an appearance in this series. Previously, the Reds ranked second among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the second round. Through seven rounds, the average value found for the Reds is 9.54% (16th in MLB). Within the seventh round, the Reds have found value in six of their fifty-six selections. One of those six value picks was Justin Turner (32.0 WAR) who was drafted as a second baseman. Over the course of the Reds’ draft history, they have drafted two second basemen in the early rounds (1-10) of the draft who would make it to the big leagues. Both of those players would have above-average careers (Avg. WAR >2). However, Justin Turner has yet to play for the Reds over the course of his 14-year (and counting) career. He has been a part of three other franchises while making it to 2 All-Star Games. His overall slash line is .287/.364/.464. Some of the other players drafted by the Reds within this round include Bobby Witt (14.6 WAR) and Reggie Sanders (39.8 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Reds within this round.
Reggie Sanders tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Reds within the seventh round. Sanders who was the 180th overall pick in the 1987 Draft played with the Reds for eight seasons. During that time, he made it to an All-Star Game and posted a slash line of .271/.353/.476. Overall, Sanders was an above-average player throughout his 17-year career (3.6 Avg. WAR). Elsewhere on this list, Tyler Mahle required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 225th overall pick in the 2013 Draft. So far, Mahle has spent his whole 6-year career with the Reds. In 581.2 IP, Mahle has posted a 4.36 ERA. Overall, he has been an above-average player (2.8 Avg. WAR).
4. Colorado Rockies (1992-Present)- 10.34% Value
The Colorado Rockies rank fourth among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the seventh round. For the Rockies, this is the second time that they are making an appearance in this series. Previously, they placed third among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the second round. Through seven rounds, the average value found for the Rockies is 10.25% (11th in MLB). Within the seventh round, the Rockies have found value in three of their twenty-nine selections. Up to this point, in terms of accumulated WAR, their best selection within this round has been Matt Holliday (44.5 WAR). Holliday was the 210th overall pick in the 1998 Draft. He played six seasons with the Rockies. During that time, Holliday produced a slash line of .319/.387/.550 while earning three trips to the All-Star Game. Overall, Holliday was an above-average player throughout his 15-year career (3.8 Avg. WAR). Some of the other players drafted by the Rockies within this round include John Thomson (12.3 WAR) and Lucas Gilbreath (0.5 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Rockies within this round.
Matt Holiday (44.5 WAR) has not only accumulated the most WAR among all players drafted by the Rockies in this round, but he also returns the most value as he exceeds the average WAR at his draft spot by a wide margin (3.37 WAR). Elsewhere on this list, John Thomson required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 212th overall pick in the 1993 Draft. In five seasons with the Rockies, Thomson posted an ERA of 5.01 in 611 IP. His career ERA was a 4.68. Overall, Thomson was a below-average player (1.8 Avg. WAR).
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (1965-Present)- 8.93%
The Pittsburgh Pirates rank fifth among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the seventh round. For the Pirates, they are making an appearance in this series for the second time. Previously, they found the fifth most value in round three. Through seven rounds, the average value found for the Pirates is 9.24% (20th in MLB). Within the seventh round, the Pirates have found value in five of their fifty-six selections. Three of these selections were shortstops. Historically, the Pirates have succeeded at drafting prospects at the shortstop position within the early rounds (1-10). Of the 68 shortstops drafted within the early rounds, 25 have made MLB (9th in MLB). Mickey Morandini (9.8 WAR) and Tony Womack (2.5 WAR) are both shortstops who fit this narrative. In five seasons with the Pirates, Womack posted a slash line of .278/.325/.363 while appearing in 1 All-Star Game. Throughout his 13-year career, he was a below-average player (0.3 Avg. WAR). Despite being drafted by the Pirates, Morandini didn’t sign. He would get drafted by the Phillies one year later. During his 11-year career, he posted a slash line of .268/.338/.359 while appearing in 1 All-Star Game. Like Womack, Morandini was a below-average player (1.2 Avg. WAR). Some of the other players drafted by the Pirates within this round include Matt Capps (6.3 WAR) and Willie Randolph (65.9 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Pirates within this round.
Willie Randolph tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Pirates within the seventh round. Randolph who was the 167th overall pick in the 1972 Draft played spent his first season with the Pirates. He produced a lackluster slash line of .164/.246/.180. After getting traded by the Pirates, his career took off. For the remainder of his 18-year career, he posted a slash line of .278/.369/.339 while appearing in 6 All-Star Games. He also chipped into the Yankees World Series in 1977. Overall, Randolph was an above-average player (4.8 Avg. WAR).
CONCLUSION
So what do the results in round seven reveal? To start, only one new team made an appearance in this latest installment of the series. The Cleveland Guardians. That leaves the Padres, Royals, Mets, Orioles, Tigers, Rays, and Marlins as the only teams who have yet to crack a top five. Historically, the Guardians sit in the middle of the pack in terms of drafting players that would make it to MLB (17th). Through seven rounds, the Guardians have found their fair share of talent in the draft despite failing to crack a top-five up until this point. Some examples include Manny Ramirez (Round 1), CC Sabathia (Round 1), and Dennis Eckersley (Round 3). Unfortunately, other teams have been able to find more quality talent than the Guardians. As a team, the Guardians have reached multiple World Series in the draft era (1995, 1997, and 2016). However, they have fallen short each of those times. Given that the Guardians don’t have a great history of finding value in drafts, how much has that contributed to their inability to put together a World Series roster?
Despite not cracking the top five in this round, the Oakland Athletics still top the list of all MLB teams in terms of the average value found through seven rounds (13.08%). In round seven, they have found value in 7.14% of their picks (8th in MLB). After dominating in round seven, the Angels have moved into second and narrowed the gap between them and the Athletics. Currently, their average value found through seven rounds is 12.32%. Will the Angels or another team push the Athletics off their throne?
What will round eight have in store? Stay tuned…