Finding Value in the MLB Draft (Round 5)
Understanding how successful MLB teams have been at finding value with their fifth round picks from the beginning of the draft era to now (1965-Present).
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Background
Welcome back to the “Finding Value in the MLB Draft” series where I aim to identify which teams have accumulated the most value within a specific round in the draft. In this article, I will dive into round 5. While the talent pool continues to shrink in each subsequent round, there has been no shortage of talent in round 5. Currently, the top player in terms of accumulated WAR within this round is Lou Whitaker who was drafted by the Detroit Tigers in 1975. In 19 seasons with the Tigers, he earned 5 All-Star appearances, 3 Gold Gloves, and 4 Silver Sluggers. Whitaker was an all-star caliber player year-in and year-out (5.1 Avg. WAR). While the Tigers nabbed the best player (in terms of WAR) to date, they failed to crack the top 5. Once again, we see a dip in the average WAR of all the players drafted in this round. The average WAR in round 5 is 3.39 (a 0.3 drop-off from round 4). We also see a drop off in the average value found among all 30 MLB teams in this round (7.76% to 6.64%). As we take this analysis one round further, what questions will I be trying to answer? When will teams start to find no value in a given round? Will the same parity we have seen so far continue in this round? Is there anything that separates the top team from the bottom team in terms of value found within this round? Finally, to close out round 4, we saw the Braves leading the way in the average value found within the first 4 rounds. Will that trend continue? Once again, I will also identify the players on the top 5 teams who have returned the most value for their respective teams. I hope you enjoy Part 5 of “Finding Value in the MLB Draft!” Note: A player that has an average WAR below 2 is considered a below-average player, a WAR above 2 is an above-average player, and a WAR at or above is 5 is an all-star caliber player.
If you missed any of the previous articles in this series, you could access them below:
1. New York Yankees (1965-Present)- 16.07% Value
The New York Yankees rank 1st among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the 5th round. This is the second straight appearance (2nd overall) for the Yankees in this series. The Yankees have seen a steady progression, in terms of value found, over the past few rounds. In round 2, they rank 23rd (7.55%) and in round 4, they rank 5th (12.28%). Through the first 5 rounds, the Yankees average 13.49% value found. That is good for 5th in MLB. Within round 5, the Yankees have found value in 9 of their 56 selections. More specifically, the Yankees have had success when drafting from the 13th slot in this round. The Yankees have picked 3 times from this slot and have found value in 2 of their selections. Todd Stottlemyre (22.9 WAR) and LaMarr Hoyt (12.1 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (6.66 WAR). However, both players never played for the Yankees. Stottlemyre was drafted out of high school by the Yankees, but he ended up not signing with them. He had an average career (2.0 Avg. WAR) that spanned 5 teams in 14 seasons. Hoyt also had an average career (2.1 Avg. WAR) that spanned 2 teams in 8 seasons. He also added a Cy Young and an All-Star appearance. Some of the other notable players drafted by the Yankees within this round include B.J. Surhoff (34.4 WAR) and Greg Gagne (26.3 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Yankees within this round.
B.J. Surhoff tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Yankees within this round. Surhoff who was drafted 128th overall in the 1982 Draft endured a 19-year career. However, none of those seasons were with the Yankees as they had drafted him out of high school, and he chose not to sign. Nevertheless, he became an above-average baseball player (2.4 Avg. WAR). Elsewhere on this list. Greg Gagne required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 129th overall pick in the 1979 Draft. Gagne never played with the Yankees throughout his 15-year career, but he turned out to be an above-average player (2.4 Avg. WAR).
2. Toronto Blue Jays (1977-Present)- 15.56% Value
The Toronto Blue Jays rank 2nd among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the 5th round. This is the 2nd time the Blue Jays make an appearance on this list as they are also the top team in terms of finding value within the 3rd round. Through the first 5 rounds, the Blue Jays average 14.52% value found. That is good for 2nd in MLB. Within round 5, the Blue Jays have found value in 7 of their 45 selections. More specifically, the Blue Jays have had success when drafting from the 26th slot in this round. The Blue Jays have drafted from this spot 2 times and found value both times. Pat Hentgen (32.6 WAR) and Cavan Biggio (5.2 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (3.16 WAR). In 14 seasons (10 with the Blue Jays), Hentgen was a 3x All-Star and Cy Young Award winner. He was an above-average player (3.5 Avg. WAR). Biggio’s career is still in progress as he is in his 4th year with the Blue Jays. Up to this point, Biggio’s numbers suggest he is an above-average player (3.4 Avg. WAR) but that is still to be decided. Some of the other notable players drafted by the Blue Jays within this round include Dave Stieb (56.4 WAR) and Michael Young (24.7 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Blue Jays within this round.
Dave Stieb tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Blue Jays within this round. Stieb who was drafted 106th overall in the 1978 Draft exceeds the average WAR at this draft spot by a wide margin (10.62 WAR). Stieb played all but 1 of his 16 big-league seasons with the Blue Jays. In that time, he became a 7x All-Star. In nearly 3,000 innings pitched, his career earned run average sat at 3.44. Overall, Stieb was nearly an all-star caliber player as his average WAR was a 4.5.
3. Texas Rangers (1965-Present)- 14.00% Value
The Texas Rangers rank 3rd among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the 5th round. This is the first time that the Rangers are making an appearance in this series. In the 4 rounds prior, the Rangers have put forth a mixed bag of results. They have ranked as low as 30th (2nd Round) and as high as 8th (3rd round) relative to all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value. Through 5 rounds, the Rangers average 11.28% value found (13th in MLB). An average team in terms of finding value. Within the 5th round, the Rangers have found value in 7 of their 50 selections. Of those 7 selections, only 1 didn’t sign with the team. Brandon Woodruff who was the 174th overall pick in the 2011 Draft opted to attend college and re-enter the draft later. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Woodruff would get drafted by the Brewers in 2014. Currently, during his 6-year career, he has accumulated 12.1 WAR while appearing in 2 All-Star games. Based on his seasonal numbers, Woodruff profiles as an above-average player (4.2 Avg. WAR). Some of the other notable players drafted by the Rangers within this round include C.J. Wilson (17.5 WAR) and Steve Buechele (16.5 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Rangers within this round.
Steve Buechele tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Rangers within this round. Buechele who was drafted 122nd overall in the 1982 Draft was an average player throughout his 11-year career (2.0 Avg. WAR). In 8 seasons with the Rangers, Buechele accumulated 11.0 WAR while hitting .240 with 94 HRs and 338 RBIs. Elsewhere on this list, C.J. Wilson has accumulated the most WAR among all players drafted in this round by the Rangers (17.5 WAR). However, the average WAR for Wilson’s draft spot (5th) is 7.51 showcasing that the Rangers got more value from the Buechele pick.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (1968-Present)- 10.91% Value
The Milwaukee Brewers rank 4th among all MLB teams in terms of finding value within the 5th round. For the Brewers, this is the 2nd time they have appeared in this series. They also appeared within the top 5 in the 1st round. Up to this point, the Brewers average 11.27% value found (14th in MLB). An average team in terms of finding value. Within the 5th round, the Brewers have found value in 6 of their 55 selections. More specifically, the Brewers have had success when drafting from the 4th slot in this round. The Brewers have picked from this slot twice and found value both times. Charlie Moore (10.3 WAR) and Steve Woodard (3.3 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot. Moore endured a 15-year career (14 with the Brewers) where he profiled as a below-average player (1.3 Avg. WAR) who sported a career .675 OPS (On-base plus slugging). Woodard endured a 7-year career (4 with the Brewers) where he also profiled as a below-average player (1.0 Avg. WAR) who sported a career 4.94 ERA. Despite both players being of value to the Brewers, neither had a strong impact on the organization. Some of the other notable players drafted by the Brewers within this round include Nomar Garciaparra (44.3 WAR) and Bill Wegman (17.8 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Brewers within this round.
Nomar Garciaparra tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Brewers within this round. Garciaparra who was drafted 130th overall in the 1991 Draft endured a productive 14-year career. However, none of those seasons were with the Brewers. He was drafted out of high school and chose to attend college. He was then drafted by the Red Sox. The Brewers missed out on an all-star caliber player (5.0 Avg. WAR) who became a 6x All-Star. Elsewhere on this list, Pat Listach required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 133rd overall pick in the 1988 Draft. Despite showing promise early on in his career as Rookie of the Year with the Brewers, his career didn’t amount to much as he was a below-average player (1.4 WAR).
5. Chicago White Sox (1965-Present)- 10.53% Value
The Chicago White Sox rank 5th among all MLB teams in terms of finding value within the 5th round. For the White Sox, this is the 1st time that they are making an appearance in this series. Prior to this round, the White Sox had finished as high as 9th (3rd round) but as low as 25th (2nd round) relative to all the teams in MLB. Overall, the White Sox average 10.87% value found (16th in MLB). An average team in terms of finding value so far. Within the 5th round, the White Sox have found value in 6 of their 57 selections. In this round, 4 of the 6 selections that have been deemed values are pitchers. Historically, the White Sox have had success when drafting pitchers. They are ranked 8th in MLB in terms of the percentage of drafted pitchers who made it to the MLB (16.76%). One notable pitcher that was drafted in this round that was deemed a value is Nate Jones (5.7 WAR). Jones endured a 10-year career (8 with the White Sox) where he was a below-average pitcher (1.2 WAR). He had a career ERA of 3.45 in 329 IP. Some of the other notable players drafted by the White Sox within this round include Ray Durham (33.8 WAR) and Joe Crede (14.7 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the White Sox within this round.
Ray Durham tops the list of players who have created the most value for the White Sox within this round. Durham who was drafted 132nd overall in the 1990 Draft enjoyed a 14-year career. Within his career, he accumulated 21.4 WAR in 8 seasons with the White Sox. He was an above-average player (2.8 Avg. WAR) who also tacked on 2 All-Star appearances. Elsewhere on this list, Joe Crede who was drafted 137th overall in the 1996 Draft is the only one on this list who contributed to a White Sox World Series (2005). Crede was an above-average player (2.7 Avg. WAR) throughout his 10-year career (9 with the White Sox).
CONCLUSION
So, what do the results here in round 5 reveal? Well, there were still new teams making an appearance but most of the teams on this list had already made a prior appearance. The parity continued but at what point will we have a list of teams who all have already been on a list?
After round 4, the Braves topped the list of all MLB teams in terms of average value found. After round 5, the Athletics have dethroned them. The Athletics average 14.75% value found (1st in MLB) while the Braves average 14.05% value found (4th in MLB). While the Athletics have been close in recent rounds, they haven’t found their way into the top 5 since round two. When will we see the Athletics resurface in this series and for how long will they be the top team in terms of average value found?
In round 5, the two new teams that made an appearance were the Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox. While both teams have enjoyed some success in this part of the draft, they differ in the amount of success they have had on the field. The White Sox have the 10th highest winning percentage while the Rangers have the 24th highest winning percentage relative to all MLB teams within the regular season. In addition, the White Sox have enjoyed 1 World Series title (in the draft era) while the Rangers are still looking to get over the hump. Despite not cracking a top 5 in any of the rounds prior, both teams have still found quality talent. The White Sox drafted Chris Sale (Round 1), Frank Thomas (Round 1), and Robin Ventura (Round 1) while the Rangers have drafted Kevin Brown (Round 1), Mark Teixeira (Round 1), and Barry Zito (Round 3). These picks just go unnoticed as other teams were able to find more big-league-level talent.
So, what separates the top team (New York Yankees, 16.07% Value) and the bottom team (St. Louis Cardinals, 0.00% Value)? First off, this is the first time where we have seen a team find no value in a given round. It is also strange that the first time happens to be the Cardinals. The Cardinals have appeared twice in this series (Rounds 1 & 4), yet they miss the mark completely in round 5. Their most successful draft pick, in terms of WAR, is Andy Rincon who accumulated a WAR of 2.0. Nevertheless, the Yankees and Cardinals both are on different sides of the aisle in this round. However, both teams live in the top 10 in terms of average value found through 5 rounds. The Cardinals rank 7th while the Yankees rank 5th. In addition, both teams have had success on the field. While the Yankees are 1st in MLB in World Series titles won with 27 (7 within the draft era), the Cardinals are in 2nd with 11 (4 within the draft era). Both teams also are among Forbes’ most valuable teams. The Yankees are in 1st ($6 billion) and the Cardinals are in 7th ($2.45 billion). All in all, this is a true outlier situation for the Cardinals. They have all the resources at their disposal to have a great draft year-in and year-out. Unfortunately, luck has not been on their side in round 5. With the Yankees ascending the rankings in the past few rounds, will they remain a staple in this series from here on out? Will this round prove to be an outlier for the Cardinals or is it a sign of things to come?
As we wrap up the analysis of round 5, some other interesting findings came to the forefront. The amount of impact players is beginning to dwindle as we move forward. For example, of the 5 players who have created the most value for the Brewers, none of them created that value while on the Brewers. Most of them put together below-average production during their tenures in the big leagues. The difference between the #1 (Nomar Garciaparra) and the #2 (Bill Wegman) players on the Brewers list is about 20 WAR. I expect those discrepancies to be consistent from here on out. In addition, while the Cardinals became the first team to find no value in a round, as the pool of talent begins to weaken, similar cases will emerge. Many teams are still looking to crack the top 5 in these round-by-round rankings. Have those teams yet to appear because they have a knack for drafting players in the later rounds or are they just not good drafting teams in general?