Finding Value in the MLB Draft (Round 1)
Understanding how successful MLB teams have been at finding value with their first round picks from the beginning of the draft era to now (1965-Present).
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Background
Often, when a player is selected in an MLB Draft, it can take several years for that player to make the leap to become a big-league ballplayer. However, once that player does become an MLB player, the question many will ask is how do we quantify whether a particular draft pick paid off? Besides the draft, many other variables play into whether a player ends up going the distance. For this article, I dive into the value each MLB team has gotten from picks in the first round. But what is a value pick defined as? From the beginning of the draft era (1965) to now, I have averaged the WAR of each draft pick (who has made the MLB) within a given slot in each round (Per MLB.com, WAR or Wins Above Replacement is defined as a player’s value in all facets of his game by examining how many wins he is worth compared to a replacement player). For a pick to be profiled as a value they must equal or exceed the average WAR for that draft slot. For example, the average WAR for the 1st pick in the 1st round currently stands at 21.67. This means that someone such as Chipper Jones is defined as a value pick (85.3 WAR) while someone such as Phil Nevil is not a value pick (15.9 WAR). Below, I have identified the top and bottom 5 teams in MLB that have accumulated the highest and lowest percentage of value picks within the first round. I will dive into each team in the top 5 in greater detail to better understand what sets each of those teams apart from the rest. In addition, for each team, I have identified the players who have created the most value for their respective teams with a simple formula (Career WAR-Average WAR in that Draft Slot). The supplementary graphic details how the top players in terms of value created (VC) stack up. Note: The average value returned in the first round for all 30 MLB teams is 20.03%. (See Figures 1 & 2)
TOP 5
1. Oakland Athletics (1965-Present)- 27.71% Value
The Oakland Athletics top all 30 MLB teams in finding the most value from their first-round picks. Of the 83 first-round picks in Athletics history, 23 have returned value. The Athletics are a well-established franchise that has been a part of 9 World Series titles, 15 American League Pennants, and 17 American League West titles. While the draft is only one piece of the puzzle, it has certainly contributed to the Athletics successes. Within the first round, the Athletics have found a home in the 26th slot as they have drafted 9 times from that slot (the most among all draft slots). They have found value in 2 of those 9 picks. Brent Gates (5.5 WAR) and Jeremy Bonderman (4.9 WAR) both exceed the average WAR historically at this draft spot (2.70 WAR). Some of their other notable draft picks that are considered value picks include Rick Monday (33.1 WAR), Reggie Jackson (74.0 WAR), Mark Mulder (20.0 WAR), and Mike Morgan (26.2 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Athletics within the first round.
Reggie Jackson tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Athletics in round 1. Jackson who was the 2nd overall pick in the 1966 Draft put together an illustrious career that consisted of 14 All-Star Game selections, 5 World Series rings, and an MVP all en route to the Hall of Fame. Of the other names on this list, Chet Lemon required the least amount of draft capital. As the 22nd overall pick in the 1972 draft, Lemon smashed the average WAR in that draft slot (12.19). However, Lemon wound up being traded by the Athletics before he got the chance to put on their uniform which makes this pick lose a little luster.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (1968-Present)- 27.27% Value
The Milwaukee Brewers rank 2nd among all MLB teams in finding the most value from their first-round picks. Of their 66 first-round picks, 18 have returned value. Despite being one of 6 MLB teams without a World Series victory, they have excelled at drafting within the first round. Historically, the 1st round has produced the best MLB talent with an average WAR (within the first 30 picks) of 9.06. The Brewers picked #1 overall in the 1985 MLB Draft. They have only picked from this spot once in franchise history. However, with that lone selection, they found some success as they took B.J. Surhoff out of the University of North Carolina. For reference, the average WAR for the 1st pick in the 1st round is 21.67, and Surhoff’s career WAR was 34.4 creating a value pick. In their history, the Brewers have found 9 value picks within the first 10 picks of the first round. Some of their notable value picks include Robin Yount (77.3 WAR), Paul Molitor (75.7 WAR), Gary Sheffield (60.5 WAR), and Ryan Braun (47.1). Below are the players that have created the most value for the Brewers within the first round.
Robin Yount tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Brewers in round 1. Yount was drafted with the 3rd pick of the 1st round in the 1973 Draft. Throughout his 20-year career (which was all spent with the Brewers), he consistently exceeded expectations by being a 2x MVP and 3x All-Star. He is now enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Each of the players on this list had significant draft capital used on them as they all found themselves drafted within the top 6. Also, each of these players spent some portion of their career with the team.
3. Seattle Mariners (1977-Present)- 26.00% Value
The Seattle Mariners rank 3rd among all MLB teams in finding the most value from their first-round picks. Of their 50 first-round picks, 13 have returned value. Like the Brewers, the Mariners have never won a World Series, but they have also yet to play in one either. Before the Mariners can fixture their eyes on the ultimate prize, they need to end a lengthy 21-year playoff drought. Despite their inability to field a team capable of making a big run, the Mariners have had a ton of success finding individual talent that wound up exceeding their expectations. In terms of finding value at a given slot in the draft order, the Mariners have found value with 3 of their 4 selections at #1 overall (the most among all draft slots). The most notable player in this slot to return value is Alex Rodriguez (118.0 WAR) who exceeds the average WAR at this slot by a wide margin (21.67 WAR). Some of the other notable players that can be identified as value picks include Dave Henderson (27.6 WAR), Jason Varitek (24.2 WAR), and Adam Jones (32.6 WAR). Below are the players that have created the most value for the Mariners within the first round.
Alex Rodriguez tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Mariners in round 1. Rodriguez was drafted #1 overall in the 1993 Draft. In his 7-year tenure with the Mariners, he accumulated 38.1 WAR and tagged on 4 All-Star game appearances. Elsewhere on this list, Adam Jones is the name for whom the least amount of draft capital was used on. Jones was the 37th overall pick in the 2003 draft. However, this pick would soon be forgotten by Mariners faithful as he only spent 2 years with the team and had a minimal impact. He did most of his damage with other teams.
4. St. Louis Cardinals (1965-Present)- 25.58% Value
The St. Louis Cardinals rank 4th among MLB teams in finding the most value from their first-round picks. Of the 86 selections in the first round, 22 have returned value. The St. Louis Cardinals have some history to their name as they have won the World Series 11 times. Part of that success is due to many of their selections within the draft over the years. Some of those selections include Yadier Molina (4th round, 2000), Lance Lynn, (1st round, 2008), and Matt Carpenter (13th round, 2009). Within the first round, the Cardinals have found themselves in the 19th slot most frequently (8 selections). However, despite a handful of these draft selections making it to the big leagues, none have been able to exceed the average WAR of 9.48 and return value. Some of the other notable picks that are considered values within the first round include Dmitri Young (12.2 WAR), Ted Simmons (50.3 WAR), and Matt Morris (20.4 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Cardinals within the first round.
Ted Simmons tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Cardinals in round 1. Simmons was drafted with the 10th overall pick in the 1967 Draft. Simmons was extremely impactful throughout his 13-year career in St. Louis. He earned 6 of his 8 All-Star appearances while there. He is now enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Elsewhere on this list, Lance Lynn had the least amount of draft capital used on him as he was the 39th overall pick in the 2008 draft. Despite that, Lynn exceeded his average WAR slot (4.88) and spent 6 years with the team. All the players on this list played for the Cardinals at one point in their career.
5. Boston Red Sox (1965-Present)- 25.32% Value
The Boston Red Sox rank 5th among MLB teams in finding the most value from their first-round picks. Of the 79 selections in the first round, 20 have returned value. The Red Sox are one of baseball’s most storied franchises and they have the track record to back it up. The Red Sox have won 9 World Series titles, 14 American League Pennants, and 10 American League East Division titles. Within many of their successful runs, some of the players that they drafted and developed within the organization had a great impact on the team’s success. During the Red Sox's latest World Series run in 2018, several homegrown players were a part of the roster. Dustin Pedroia (2004, 2nd round), Mookie Betts (2011, 5th round), Jackie Bradley Jr. (2013, 1st round), among many others. When looking at where the Red Sox have positioned themselves in the 1st round, they have found the most value at pick #23. Guys such as Jacoby Ellsbury (31.2 WAR), Mo Vaughn (27.1 WAR), and Aaron Sele (20.1 WAR) have all exceeded the average WAR at this draft spot (6.76 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Red Sox within the first round.
Roger Clemens tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Red Sox in round 1. Clemens was drafted 19th overall in the 1983 draft. In his 13-year career with the Red Sox, Clemens was magnificent. He was a 3x CY Young Award winner, 1x MVP, and 5x All-Star. He accumulated 80.7 in WAR with the team. Elsewhere on this list, Jacoby Ellsbury had the least amount of draft capital used on him as he was the 23rd pick in the 2005 draft. Ellsbury still managed to exceed the average WAR at his draft slot (6.76 WAR) and earned his only All-Star game appearance during his 7-year tenure with the team.
CONCLUSION
Just like I have touched on throughout this data analysis, this information still needs to be taken with a grain of salt because the draft is just one piece of the puzzle in a team hoping to get its drafted players to the big leagues. For example, a team may draft a prospect that portrays all the tools of an impact player at the next level. However, it is no tall task to make a big-league roster. So if that player never lives up to expectations, does it fall on the organization or team itself? Every situation is different but there is no clear formula for choosing who to draft.
What conclusions can I draw from the numbers described above? For the teams in the top 5, nailing a first-round pick can go a long way in building the foundation of a World Series team. However, it doesn’t suggest your team can go the distance as the Mariners and Brewers, despite their first-round success have yet to win a World Series. Does this mean they fail in a different aspect like the rest of the draft, free agency, player development, etc.? There is no black and white answer. For teams that are in the bottom 5 such as the Marlins and Orioles, a common theme is that all these teams currently have a small payroll but in years past they have had success as each of them has won at least 1 World Series. Does the lack of financial freedom for these teams deprive them of the resources they need to be able to find the next great talent? It is possible but would be very hard to determine.
Another thing to point out is that for many of the draft selections these teams make, they wind up having successful MLB careers but not for the team that drafted them. Should that be a knock on the team for giving up on the player too soon or a knock on the team for not being able to develop that player?
Finally, when comparing the most successful team (Oakland Athletics, 27.71%) and the least successful team (Pittsburgh Pirates, 12.86%), the difference is significant. What do the Athletics have that the Pirates do not? While the Athletics best the Pirates in World Series wins 9-5, they have also had more consistent and longer-tenured leadership. In the draft era, the Athletics have had half as many general managers at the helm. This is important because it shows the Athletics have had a consistent philosophy for the most part while it seems to change more frequently with the Pirates due to the turnover at the position. However, what these teams look for when drafting and how they develop these players are probably extremely different as the same can be said for each team in MLB. But all those questions can only be answered by those who hold the keys for each franchise. As we continue our analysis of each round from here on out, will the teams who displayed a great amount of success prove to be the same or will it change significantly from round to round leaving us with even more questions to ask ourselves?
Great insight!
interesting can u comment on miami marlins next time