Finding Value in the MLB Draft (Round 4)
Understanding how successful MLB teams have been at finding value with their fourth round picks from the beginning of the draft era to now (1965-Present).
(Image credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Background
Welcome back to the “Finding Value in the MLB Draft” series where I aim to identify which teams have accumulated the most value within a specific round in the draft. In this article, I will dive into round 4. Normally, the expectations in this round aren’t to find a franchise cornerstone yet teams have been able to find players that put together Hall of Fame careers. Two names that stand out in this round include Randy Johnson (4th round, 1982) and Rickey Henderson (4th round, 1976). Johnson who was drafted by the Braves out of high school ended up not signing with the team and entered his name back into the draft. Johnson would go on to put together 22 successful seasons (six different teams) while accumulating 101.1 WAR. Henderson was drafted by the Athletics and played the bulk of his career there. He accumulated 111.1 WAR in his 25-year career. Both players are #1 and #2 respectively in terms of accumulated WAR in this round. With each subsequent round, we have seen a dip in the average WAR of the players drafted. In round 4, the average WAR for a player drafted is 3.69 WAR (an approximately 1.0 WAR drop-off from round 3). We also see a drop off in the average value found among all 30 MLB teams in this round (10.08% to 7.76%). As we dive one round further into this series, what kind of questions will I be looking to answer? Will the parity from round to round continue or will certain teams begin to separate themselves from the pack? Do the players who return the most value for a given team have a smaller impact on their teams than in rounds previously? Is there anything that separates the top and bottom teams in terms of value found within the 4th round? Once again, I will also identify the players on the top 5 teams who have returned the most value for their respective franchises. I hope you enjoy Part 4 of “Finding Value in the MLB Draft!”
If you missed any of the previous articles in this series, you could access them below:
1. San Francisco Giants (1965-Present)- 14.55% Value
The San Francisco Giants rank 1st among all 30 MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the 4th round. For the Giants, this is the first time they make an appearance in this series. So far, in terms of value found, the Giants have finished as high as 10th (Round 2) but as low as 24th relative to all the other teams in the league. Their average value found in their first 4 rounds is 13.20% (12th in MLB). For round 4, the Giants have found value in 8 of their 55 selections. More specifically, they have had the most success when picking from the 16 slot in this round. Of the 4 times that the Giants have picked from this slot, they have found value in 2 of their selections. Russ Ortiz (13.2 WAR) and Charlie Hayes (10.5 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (5.46 WAR). Ortiz played in 6 seasons with the Giants while accumulating 9.2 WAR (the most among all teams he played for). Hayes played in 4 seasons with the Giants while accumulating 0.5 WAR (5th among the 7 teams he played for). For the Giants, they were able to get little production out of both players despite both being deemed values. Both players delivered an average seasonal WAR of 1.1 which profiles as a below-average player according to Baseball-Reference Some of the other notable names drafted within this round that have been deemed a value include Brandon Crawford (30.5 WAR), Rob Deer (13.8 WAR), and Steve Busby (16.1 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Giants within round 4.
Brandon Crawford tops the list of players that have created the most value for the Giants in round 4. Crawford who was drafted 117th overall in 2008 has exceeded expectations in his 12-year career with the Giants. Crawford has racked up 3 All-Star game appearances, 4 Gold Gloves, and 1 Silver Slugger. He was also a crucial piece in the World Series runs in 2012 and 2014. Elsewhere on this list, Mike Myers required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 122nd pick in the 1990 Draft. While Myers (8.1 WAR) exceeds the average WAR at this draft slot (3.01 WAR), he never suited up for the Giants during his 13-year career. However, he turned out to be a below-average player overall.
2. Los Angeles Angels (1965-Present)- 14.29% Value
The Los Angeles Angels rank 2nd among all 30 MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the 4th round. For the Angels, this is the first time they make an appearance in this series. Up to this point, in terms of value, the Angels have finished as high as 7th (Round 2) and as low as 13th relative to all the other teams in the league. Their average value found in their first 4 rounds is 15.31% (5th in MLB). Overall, the Angels have faired well in the early goings of the draft. In round 4, the Angels have found value in 8 of their 56 selections. More specifically, the Angels have had the most success when picking from the 14th slot in this round. Of the 2 times they have picked from this slot, they were able to find value both times. Mike Clevinger (13.5 WAR) and Mike Witt (21.6 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (8.32 WAR). Witt accumulated 21.8 WAR throughout his 10-year career with the Angels. He also added on 2 All-Star game appearances. Clevinger would get traded by the Angels to the Indians before he had the chance to suit up for the team. Currently, Clevinger is on his 2nd team (San Diego Padres) and has established himself as an above-average pitcher despite health concerns. Some of the other notable players drafted within this round that have been deemed a value include Kirk McCaskill (14.3 WAR), Brian Harper (12.3 WAR), and Garret Anderson (25.7 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Angels within this round.
Garret Anderson tops the list of players who created the most value for the Angels within this round. Anderson also required the least amount of draft capital of all the names on this list as he was the 125th overall pick in the 1990 MLB Draft. Anderson spent most of his career as an Angel as he accumulated 28.1 WAR in 15 seasons. He was an impactful player for the Angels as he strung together 3 All-Star appearances and 2 Silver Sluggers. He also played a role in the Angels’ lone World Series title in 2002. Among all players drafted by the Angels, Anderson ranks 20th in WAR. His average WAR (1.9) indicates he was an average player throughout his career.
3. Chicago Cubs (1965-Present)- 14.04% Value
The Chicago Cubs rank 3rd among all 30 MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the 4th round. This is the first time that the Cubs make an appearance in this series. Up to this point, in terms of value, the Cubs have finished as high as 14th (Round 2) and as low as 23rd (Round 1) relative to all the other teams in the league. Their average value found in their first 4 rounds is 12.55% (15th in MLB). Overall, the Cubs are an average team when it comes to drafting within the first 4 rounds. In round 4, the Cubs have found value in 8 of their 57 selections. Historically, the Cubs have had a knack for finding above-average (average WAR >=2) pitching prospects within the early rounds (1-10). Of their 83 drafted pitching prospects who have made the MLB, 15 had an above-average career (5th in MLB). This round supports that narrative. Ken Holtzman (27.3 WAR) and Rich Hill (16 WAR) are in the top 2 in terms of WAR for players drafted by the Cubs within this round. Hill accumulated 4.5 WAR in 4 seasons with the Cubs while Holtzman accumulated 16.3 WAR in 9 seasons with the Cubs. In addition, 6 of the 8 selections that were deemed values in this round were pitchers. Some of the other notable names drafted within this round that have been deemed a value include Ricky Nolasco (13.4 WAR) and Adam Everett (12.6 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Cubs within this round.
Ken Holtzman tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Cubs within this round. Holtzman who was the 61st overall pick in the 1965 MLB Draft pitched to the tune of a 3.76 ERA during his tenure with the Cubs. His career ERA was a 3.49. After leaving Chicago, Holtzman would become a 2x All-Star and a 3x World Series winner with the Athletics. Elsewhere on this list, Rich Hill required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 112th overall pick in the 2002 Draft. While Hill put up pedestrian numbers early in his career with the Cubs, he has found success throughout his 18-year career that spanned 11 different franchises.
4. St. Louis Cardinals (1965-Present)- 13.79% Value
The St. Louis rank 4th among all 30 teams in terms of finding the most value within the 4th round. The Cardinals are one of the few teams thus far that have made multiple appearances in this series. They are currently within the top-6 in 3 different rounds (1, 3, and 4). Their average value found in their first 4 rounds is 16.07% (2nd in MLB). As you can see, the Cardinals excel within this portion of the draft. In round 4, the Cardinals have found value in 8 of their 58 selections. Up to this point, the Cardinals have had a knack for finding hitting prospects in the early rounds (1-10). Among all the teams in MLB, the Cardinals rank 4th in terms of drafted hitting prospects who have cracked the big leagues (34.56%). Of the 8 picks that have been deemed values, 6 were on the offensive side of the ball. For example, Jerry Mumphrey, a shortstop drafted in 1971 is 2nd (in terms of WAR) among all players drafted by the Cardinals within this round. In 6 years with the Cardinals, Mumphrey accumulated 5.6 WAR. Overall, Mumphrey was an above-average player throughout his 15-year career (2.3 Avg. WAR). Other notable players drafted within this round that have been deemed a value include Paul DeJong (13.2 WAR), Jim Gott (10.5 WAR), and Yadier Molina (42.1 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Cardinals within this round.
Yadier Molina tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Cardinals within this round. Molina who was the 113th overall pick in the 2000 Draft has far exceeded expectations in his 19-year career (all with the Cardinals). Among all players drafted by the Cardinals, Molina ranks 7th in terms of WAR (2nd among all catchers). Molina is a 10x All-Star, 9x Gold Glove winner, and 1x Silver Slugger. Molina was also an integral part of the Cardinals’ World Series runs in 2006 and 2011. Elsewhere on this list, Paul DeJong required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 131st overall pick in the 2015 Draft. Up to this point in his 6-year career with the Cardinals, his numbers suggest he is an above-average player (3.8 Avg. WAR). However, he has struggled as of late as he was recently sent down to the minors.
5. New York Yankees (1965-Present)- 12.28% Value
The New York Yankees rank 5th among all 30 MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the 4th round. For the Yankees, this is the first time they make an appearance in this series. Up to this point, in terms of value, the Yankees have finished as high as 11th (Round 3) and as low as 22nd (Round 2) relative to all the other teams in the league. Their average value found in their first 4 rounds is 12.84% (13th in MLB). The Yankees are an average team (in terms of drafting) in this part of the draft. In round 4, the Yankees have found value in 7 of their 57 selections. More specifically, the Yankees have found success when picking from the 26th slot in the order (tied for most value picks within this round). The Yankees have picked from this slot two times in franchise history and have found value both times. With those selections, they took Eric Plunk (13.5 WAR) and Tim Lollar (5.8 WAR). Both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (4.62 WAR). Plunk accumulated 1.6 WAR (3rd among teams he played for) in his 3-year career with the Yankees while Lollar accumulated 0.4 WAR (T-3rd among all teams he played for) in 1 year with the team. Both players had a small impact on the franchise that drafted them. Other notable players drafted within this round that have been deemed a value include Matt Smith (0.6 WAR), Jim Beattie (14.8 WAR), and Stan Bahnsen (22.7 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Yankees within this round.
Stan Bahnsen tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Yankees within this round. Bahnsen who was the 68th overall pick in the 1965 Draft accumulated 11.5 WAR in his 5-year career with the Yankees. To start off his Yankee career, he was recognized as the Rookie of the Year. However, that season proved to be the peak of his career. Overall, while each of the players on this list played for the Yankees, none of them have had a strong impact on the organization. The only one who can potentially elevate their stock is Jordan Montgomery who is currently in his 6th year with the team. He is an above-average player as he has posted an average WAR of 3.2 (to qualify as an above-average player, your average WAR must be >=2).
CONCLUSION
So, what do the results here in round four reveal? The St. Louis Cardinals joined the Mariners and Athletics as the only teams to make an appearance in this series more than once. In terms of average value found, all 3 of these teams rank in the top 10. Currently, the Atlanta Braves are in first. Their average value found within the first 4 rounds is 16.25%. Will the Braves be able to sustain this pace or are there other teams that find more success in the middle to late rounds of the draft?
In this round, 4 new teams made the cut. The Angels, Cubs, Yankees, and Giants. The Cubs, Yankees, and Giants have been successful franchises as each of them have won at least 3 World Series titles throughout their history. The Angels have had some success as they racked up 1 World Series win back in 2002. So, why could it be that it took so long for these storied franchises to crack a top 5 in this series? For one, other teams are just seemingly better drafters in this portion of the draft. But these teams also have more rings to show for despite missing the cut up until this point. These teams are most likely able to maintain their success through other avenues of building a World Series contender. Whether that is through trades, free agency, or international signings. All these teams are considered some of the most valuable franchises in MLB. According to Forbes, the Yankees, Cubs, and Giants crack the top 5 while the Angels slide into the top 10. Hence, these teams are given the ability to bring in more money and use that money to spend on top-tier players. They also can allocate more resources in the hopes of improving their drafting abilities.
So, what separates the top team (San Francisco Giants, 14.55% Value) and the bottom team (Pittsburgh Pirates, 1.75% Value). For one, the Giants have been a much more successful franchise in the draft era, especially as of late. The Pirates have 5 World Series rings but none since 1979. The Giants have 8 World Series rings with 3 since 2010. In addition, Forbes has the Giants as the 5th most valuable team ($3.5 billion) while the Pirates are 23rd ($1.32 billion). Through 4 rounds, the average value found for the Giants is 13.20% (12th in MLB). The Pirates’ average value found is 9.07% (26th in MLB). Even with the earnings difference between both teams, the Pirates have not done a good job at maximizing the resources they have. While their draft resume could improve as we progress forward, their lack of success thus far doesn’t necessarily bode well for the future. The stories of these two teams are telling and it is possible that drafting abilities have played some role in each of these teams’ successes. Will the Giants continue their drafting prowess? Do the Pirates succeed later in the draft where other teams miss the mark?
As we continue to progress in this series, the general theme has remained. While there are several teams who have done well within these first 4 rounds, no team has set itself apart from the rest. I expect this parity to continue for the bulk of the draft. In addition, traditionally the prospects get weaker as the draft goes on and that is starting to show. While many of the top players in this round proved to be difference-makers, it isn’t on par with what we have seen in rounds prior. Nevertheless, teams are still able to find value in their picks and the hope is that a few teams will begin to separate themselves and prove to be the best at finding value within the MLB Draft.