Finding Value in the MLB Draft (Round 2)
Understanding how successful MLB teams have been at finding value with their second round picks from the beginning of the draft era to now (1965-Present).
(Image credit: Brad Mangin/Mangin Photography)
Background
After looking at the first round in the MLB Draft, my journey continues to find out which teams find the most value within the second round. While the players picked in the second round don’t get as much attention as those picked in the first round, they have just as good of a chance if not better of succeeding at the big-league level. If you don’t recall, a team makes a value pick when that player meets or exceeds the WAR at his draft slot. For example, Barry Bonds (162.8) was drafted with the 11th pick in the second round of the 1982 MLB Draft. The average WAR for that draft slot is an 11.14 so Bonds crushes that mark and would give the San Francisco Giants a value pick. Some of the questions that I will be trying to answer within this section of the project include: Will the teams with the highest rates of value in the second round be the same as the first round? How much of an impact has an average second-rounder had on a team compared to a first-rounder? Is there a reason why a team would perform better or worse in the second round compared to another round? In addition, for context, the average WAR (within the first 30 picks) in the second round is 5.95. This is a drop-off from what we saw in round 1 over the same range (9.06). Finally, just like in round 1, I will identify which players have created the most value for their respective teams by calculating their Value Created (Career WAR – Avg. WAR at Draft Slot). Without further ado, let’s dive into the top 5 teams in terms of value for round 2. Note: The average value for all 30 teams within the second round is 10.97% (roughly a 10% decrease from round 1).
If you would like to catch up on any of the previous articles, you can find them below:
TOP 5
1. Oakland Athletics (1965-Present)- 20.00% Value
The Oakland Athletics top the list once again as they have found the most value from players drafted within the second round. Of their 65 draft selections in this round, 13 have been deemed value picks. The Athletics continue to display their success at the top of the draft. More importantly, two rounds where the talent is supposed to be the greatest. Within the second round, they have turned their selections into values at multiple spots within the round. I want to focus more on the 7th slot in this round. The Athletics have picked from this spot 3 times. In 2 of those picks, they have found values. Vida Blue in 1967 (45.1 WAR) and Mike Gallego in 1981 (17 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft spot (4.80). More importantly, these two players were part of World Series teams during their tenures with the Athletics. Blue was a part of 3. Other notable players drafted within this round that classify as a value pick include Andre Ethier (21.5 WAR), Kevin Tapani (29.2 WAR), and Jason Giambi (50.5 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value in the second round for the Athletics.
Jason Giambi tops the list of players who created the most value for the Athletics in the second round. Giambi, who was the 58th overall pick in the 1992 Draft played in 8 seasons for the Athletics and tacked on an MVP, 2 All-Star appearances, and 1 Silver Slugger while accumulating 28.8 WAR. Elsewhere on this list, Kurt Suzuki required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 67th overall pick in the 2004 Draft. Suzuki managed to exceed the average WAR at his draft slot by a decent margin (3.40) and put together some of his best seasons in his 8-year tenure with the Athletics. Tapani and Ethier are the only 2 selections on this list that never played in a game for the Athletics.
2. Cincinnati Reds (1965-Present)- 17.91% Value
For the first time in this series, the Cincinnati Reds make an appearance in a positive light. For round 1, the Reds are a bottom 5 team in terms of finding value. However, things are dramatically different as they place second among all 30 teams in finding value within the second round. Of their 67 selections in this round, 12 have been value picks. In this round, the Reds were able to find 2 franchise players at the catcher position. Johnny Bench in 1965 (75.1 WAR) and Joey Votto in 2002 (61.4 WAR and counting). Both exceed the average WAR at their respective draft spots (6.61 and 8.12 WAR). Since being drafted as a catcher, Votto has since shifted to being a primary first baseman. Nevertheless, between these two guys, they have accounted for 3 MVPs and 20 All-Star appearances. Bench is in the Hall of Fame and Votto may be right behind him. Other notable players drafted within this round that have been deemed value picks include Adam Dunn (17.9 WAR), Chris Sabo (16.6 WAR), and Barry Larkin (70.5 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value in the second round for the Reds.
Johnny Bench tops the list of players who have created the most value in the second round for the Reds. Bench accumulated 75.1 WAR in his 17-year career (all with the Reds). As previously mentioned, Bench has pretty much every accolade from MVPs to All-Stars to Rookie of the Year. He was also a big part of the Reds World Series runs in 1975 and 1976. Elsewhere on this list, Barry Larkin required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 5first overall pick in the 1982 Draft. Like Bench, Larkin spent his whole career in Cincinnati and earned 12 All-Star appearances, 1 MVP, and was a part of the 1990 World Series. He is now enshrined in Cooperstown. All of the names on this list put on a Reds uniform at some point during their career.
3. Colorado Rockies (1992-Present)- 17.14% Value
The Colorado Rockies rank 3rd among all 30 MLB teams in terms of finding value within the second round. This is the first time the Rockies are making an appearance in this series as in the first round, the Rockies found value in 20.93% of their picks which was good for 13th among all 30 MLB teams. But, for the second round, in 35 of their draft selections, they have found value on 6 of their picks. In this round, the Rockies have come away with a franchise player. Nolan Arenado (46.5 WAR and counting), who was drafted 59th overall in the 2009 Draft exceeds the average WAR at his draft slot by a wide margin (6.47 WAR). While Arenado was never able to lift the Rockies to its first World Series in franchise history, he racked up numerous accolades that made this pick more than worth it. In 8 seasons with the Rockies, Arenado was a 5x All-Star, 7x Gold Glove, and 4x Silver Slugger. Other notable names who have been deemed values for the Rockies within the second round include Charlie Blackmon (19.2 WAR), Aaron Cook (15.2 WAR), and Seth Smith (11.6 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value within the second round for the Rockies.
Nolan Arenado tops the list of players who have created the most value in the second round for the Rockies. As previously mentioned, Arenado was a huge “hit” for the Rockies as evident in his career numbers with the team. Elsewhere on this list, Jody Gerut (7.2 WAR) who was the 7first overall pick in the 1998 draft had the least amount of draft capital used on him. He exceeds the average WAR at his draft slot by a small margin (5.96 WAR). However, Gerut never suited up for the Rockies. But it didn’t come back to haunt them as he was very average for most of his career.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (1965-Present)- 16.98% Value
The Philadelphia Phillies rank 4th in MLB in finding the most value with their selections within the second round. Like the Rockies and Reds, the Phillies find their way into this series for the first time. In the first round, the Phillies have found value on 22.41% of their selections which is good for 10th in MLB. Nevertheless, they see a stark improvement here in round 2 as in 53 of their selections, they have found value within 9 of their picks. When looking at their most recent World Series run in 2008, a player who was drafted within this round played a big part in their success. Jimmy Rollins (47.6 WAR), who was drafted 46th overall in the 1996 MLB Draft exceeds the average WAR at his draft slot (11.14 WAR). Aside from playing a role in winning the World Series, Rollins made his presence known by being a 3x All-Star, 1x MVP, and 4x Gold Glove. Other notable players who have been deemed values for the Phillies within the second round include Randy Wolf (22.8 WAR), Tom Underwood (9.9 WAR), and Scott Rolen (70.1 WAR). Below are the players who created the most value within the second round for the Phillies.
Mike Schmidt tops the list of players who have created the most value in the second round for the Phillies. Schmidt (106.8), who was drafted 30th overall in the 1971 Draft smashes the average WAR at his draft slot (8.34 WAR). In addition, in his 18-year career, (all with the Phillies) Schmidt was 3x MVP, 12x All-Star, 6x Silver Slugger, and a part of the 1980 World Series making this a “home run” of a pick. Elsewhere on this list, Larry Hisle required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 38th overall pick in the 1965 Draft. In 4 years with the Phillies, he was underwhelming in accumulating a 1.2 WAR. However, his career picked up after departing the Phillies as he picked up 2 All-Star appearances.
5. Minnesota Twins (1965-Present)- 16.22% Value
Rounding out the top 5 are the Minnesota Twins who also make an appearance in this series for the first time. In the first round, the Twins have found value in 20.69% of their selections which is good for 14th in the MLB. For the second round, they do significantly better relative to their counterparts. Of their 74 selections within the second round, 12 have been deemed value picks. Within this second round, the Twins have had some success at the 2first slot as 2 of their 3 picks have been deemed values. Scott Baker (15.6 WAR) who was drafted in 2003 and Niko Goodrum (2.0 WAR) who was drafted in 2010 both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (1.68 WAR). For Baker, he was a Twin for 7 years while accumulating a 15.8 WAR. Goodrum only played in a handful of games for the Twins and has since moved on to other organizations. Both picks while values had a very minimal impact on the Twins organization. Other notable players who have been deemed values for the Twins in the second round include Bill Swift (20.7 WAR), Jacque Jones (11.6 WAR), and Allan Anderson (8.5 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Twins within the second round.
Frank Viola tops the list of players who created the most value for the Twins within the second round. Viola was picked 37th overall in the 1981 Draft. Viola was a Twin for 8 seasons and accumulated 27.0 WAR. It can also be argued that Minnesota was his most impactful landing spot as he piled up numerous accolades and was a part of the 1987 World Series team. Elsewhere on this list, Scott Baker required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 53rd overall pick in the 2003 Draft. As previously mentioned, Baker spent the bulk of his career in Minnesota but never lived up to his prospect pedigree. Finally, of the 5 names on this, Del Unser and Bill Swift never put on a Twins uniform.
Conclusion
So, what do the results here in round 2 reveal? The Oakland Athletics continued their dominance as they earned the top spot for both round 1 and round 2. While the Athletics have had a notoriously low payroll from year to year, it seems they make up some of those shortcomings here in the draft. While it remains to be seen how deep into the draft the Athletics continue their success, they sure do set the tone. This is crucial because most of the best prospects exist within the first several rounds.
Outside of the Athletics, the 4 other teams that make up the top 5 are first-timers on this list. The Twins, Rockies, and Phillies all perform reasonably well in the first round but even better in the second round to earn themselves a top 5 spot. For the Reds, they landed themselves in the bottom 5 in the first round and managed to skyrocket to the top 5 in the second round. What is the reason behind this? When the Reds evaluate players at a first-round grade, they may be overvaluing some of the prospects and taking them a little too early. Or it could just be the case of prospects who were highly regarded couldn’t develop into the players that the organization thought they could become. That could fall on the player itself or the player development department.
Another commonality between all these teams except for the Rockies is that within the second round of the draft, these teams have found a player that would soon make an impact on a World Series run. For all in baseball, the goal is to be the final team standing and these teams were able to build a roster of players in which many were drafted in this very round. For the Rockies, they haven’t won a World Series but in the lone one they have played in, a player drafted within this round was a part of that team.
So, what separates the top team (Oakland Athletics, 20.00% Value) and the bottom team (Texas Rangers, 2.08% Value). Historically, the Athletics have been a much more successful franchise as they have won 9 World Series titles while the Rangers are still looking for their first. However, it is not to say that nailing these kinds of draft picks will correlate to winning a World Series but rather the philosophies these two teams have differ when it comes to drafting which results in the kind of talent they can then build on. Something to note however is that both teams generally sit towards the bottom in terms of team payroll. It is becoming more evident while extra resources could help a team in maximizing its potential in the draft, it is not the end all be all, it is more important to do what you can with the resources you have. The Athletics are not only accomplishing that but have a strong organizational focus that sticks to their plan year in and year out.