Finding Value in the MLB Draft (Round 3)
Understanding how successful MLB teams have been at finding value with their third round picks from the beginning of the draft era to now (1965-Present).
(Image credit: Otto Greule Jr./ALLSPORT)
Background
Welcome back to the “Finding Value in the MLB Draft” series where I dissect each round in the MLB Draft to determine which teams have gotten the most value out of their picks. Next up is round three. Round three is no stranger to finding immense talent as Hall of Famers such as Gary Carter and Bert Blyleven both came to be within this round. In case you forgot, for a team to earn a value pick for a given selection, the player’s career WAR must exceed the average WAR at their draft slot. For example, in 1973, Eddie Murray (68.7 WAR) was the 15th pick in the third round. The average WAR at that draft slot has been 5.85 which would classify Murray as a value pick for the Baltimore Orioles. So far in this series, there has been only one team to make an appearance on both lists. The Oakland Athletics. Does their draft dominance continue in round three? In addition, will any other teams join the Athletics in making multiple appearances in this series or will we continue to see turnover from round to round? The average WAR in the third round (within the first 30 picks) currently sits at 4.65 WAR. A minor drop-off from round two (5.95 WAR) but still a sign that MLB-level talent begins to fall off each subsequent round. Once again, I will dive more in-depth into each of the teams within the top five in terms of finding the most value. Then, I will determine which players from those teams have created the most value. Let’s get right into it! Note: The average value found of all 30 MLB teams within the third round is 10.08% (a minor drop-off from round two).
If you missed any of the previous articles in this series, you can access them below:
1. Toronto Blue Jays (1977-Present)- 18.75% Value
The Toronto Blue Jays top all 30 MLB teams in terms of getting the most value out of their picks in the third round. For the Blue Jays, this is their first appearance in the series. In the first two rounds, the Blue Jays rank in the middle of the pack in terms of finding value (12th in round one and 17th in round two). In round three, the Blue Jays have made 48 selections. Eight of those picks have gone on to be a value. The Blue Jays have been fortunate enough to win two World Series. They came in 1992 and 1993. A few of the players drafted in this round were on those teams. Jimmy Key was on the team in 1992 while John Olerud was a key piece of both World Series runs. Other notable names drafted within this round that have been deemed value picks include Jake Marisnick (11.2 WAR), Adam Lind (12.7 WAR), and Shaun Marcum (13.4 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value within the third round for the Blue Jays.
John Olerud tops the list of players who have created the most value within the third round for the Blue Jays. Besides being a key piece in each of the team’s World Series runs, Olerud had a successful career. Currently, he has accumulated the second most WAR among all players drafted by the Blue Jays (58.2 WAR). He was also a 2x All-Star and 3x Gold Glove winner. In his 8 years with the Blue Jays, he accumulated 22.6 WAR. Elsewhere on this list, David Weathers required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 82nd overall pick in the 1988 Draft. While Weathers (10.4 WAR) exceeds the average WAR at his draft slot (2.63 WAR), he accomplished little in his brief stint with the Blue Jays. He had the strongest impact on the Cincinnati Reds during his 6-year tenure with the team. Of these five players, Jake Marisnick is the only one that never suited up for the Blue Jays.
2. Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals (1968-Present)- 17.65% Value
The Washington Nationals rank second among all 30 MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within round three. The Nationals make their first appearance in this series as they have failed to see as much success in the previous two rounds as their counterparts. In round one, the Nationals rank ninth while in round two they rank 15th. In round three, the Nationals have found value in 9 of their 51 picks. Within this round, the Nationals have had the most success at the fifth slot. The Nationals have picked from this slot twice and created value on both picks. Gary Carter (70.2 WAR) and Grady Sizemore (27.8 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (7.34 WAR) by a wide margin. Carter and Sizemore combine for 14 All-Star Appearances and 5 Gold Glove awards. However, none of Sizemore’s impactful production was felt within this organization as he never suited up for the team. Other notable players who have been deemed as a value pick in the third round include Ian Desmond (16.2 WAR), Danny Espinosa (8.5 WAR), and Marquis Grissom (29.6 WAR). Below are the players who created the most value for the Nationals within the third round.
Gary Carter tops the list of players who have created the most value within the third round for the Nationals. Carter who was the 53rd overall pick in the 1972 Draft had an outstanding career that began with the Expos. In 12 seasons with the team, he accumulated 55.8 WAR and appeared in 7 All-Star games. Now, Gary Carter is enshrined as a Hall of Famer. Elsewhere on this list, Marquis Grissom required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 76th overall pick in the 1988 Draft. In his 6-year career with the Expos, Grissom accumulated 19.9 WAR and made it to 2 All-Star Games (the only two of his career).
3. Seattle Mariners (1977-Present)- 17.39% Value
The Seattle Mariners rank third among all 30 MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the third round. This is the second time the Mariners are making an appearance in this series as they ranked within the top five for finding value in round one. For round three, the Mariners have found value in 8 of their 56 picks. Throughout the Mariners’ draft history, they have had a knack for nailing hitting prospects within the early rounds. Within the first ten rounds of the draft, the Mariners have hit on 33.33% of their hitting prospects which is good for sixth among all MLB teams (Meaning players who would end up making an appearance in the big leagues). Round 3 is no different. In 2009, the Mariners landed Kyle Seager with the 82nd overall pick. Seager was an above-average player who spent his full 11-year career with the Mariners. He earned 1 All-Star Game appearance and 1 Gold Glove award. Other notable players who have been deemed values within this round include Tyler O’Neil (8.4 WAR), Edwin Diaz (7.6 WAR), and Dave Fleming (5.3 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value within the third round for the Mariners.
Kyle Seager tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Mariners within the third round. As previously stated, Seager was an above-average baseball player that put together an average of 4.0 WAR per season. For context, Fan Graphs says that an All-Star caliber player produces around 5.0 WAR per season. Elsewhere on this list, Tyler O’Neil required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 85th overall pick in the 2013 Draft. Despite exceeding the average WAR at his draft slot (6.03 WAR), O’Neil has not suited up for the Mariners. He is currently in his fifth year with the Cardinals.
4. Atlanta Braves (1965-Present)- 16.07% Value
The Atlanta Braves rank fourth among all 30 MLB teams in terms of finding value within the third round. For the Braves, this is the first time they make an appearance in this series. The Braves are very steady drafters through these first three rounds. While they failed to make the top five in the two rounds prior, they still have found themselves in the top ten both times (seventh in round one and sixth in round two). In the third round, the Braves have found value in 9 of their 56 selections. Within this round, they chose Craig Kimbrel with the 96th overall pick in the 2008 Draft. To date, Kimbrel has accumulated the most WAR among all players drafted by the Braves in this round. Kimbrel achieved the most during his 5-year career with the Braves. He was a 4x All-Star and Rookie of the Year in 2011. He also accumulated 12.0 WAR (the most among all teams he has been with). Other notable players who have been drafted within this round include Charlie Morton (11.0 WAR), Steve Bedrosian (14.5 WAR), and Zane Smith (20.2 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most WAR within the third round for the Braves.
Zane Smith tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Braves within the third round. Smith, who was the 63rd overall pick in the 1982 Draft was a Brave for six seasons and accumulated 7.2 WAR during his time there. He posted a 4.06 ERA with the Braves, a little above his career mark (3.74 ERA). Elsewhere on this list, Matt Harrison required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 97th overall pick in the 2003 Draft. Despite exceeding the average WAR at his draft slot (0.98 WAR), Harrison never suited up for the Braves in his career. He played eight seasons with the Texas Rangers.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (1965-Present)- 15.52% Value
The Pittsburgh Pirates round out the top five in terms of finding the most value within the third round. For the Pirates, this is the first time they make an appearance in this series. In the two preceding rounds, the Pirates have struggled as they sit in the bottom five in both rounds (30th in round 1 and 28th in round 2). Despite the struggles in the first two rounds, the Pirates rebound nicely by having found value in 9 of their 58 selections in the third round. Within this round, the Pirates have had some success at the 10th spot. Of their three selections, two have returned value. Bronson Arroyo (23.4 WAR) and Jose DeLeon (15.0 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (5.75 WAR). Arroyo accumulated -0.7 WAR during his brief tenure with the Pirates while DeLeon accumulated 3.7 WAR in his tenure with the Pirates. However, both players had a bigger impact on other franchises. Other notable players who have been deemed as values within this round include Jeremy Guthrie (18.4 WAR), Joe Magrane (12.0 WAR), and Jordan Luplow (2.4 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Pirates within the third round.
Richie Zisk tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Pirates within the third round. Zisk who was drafted with the 56th overall pick in the 1967 Draft spent 6 years with the Pirates. In that span, he hit .299 with 69 home runs. He also accumulated 15.7 WAR (the most among all teams he played for). Elsewhere on this list, Don Robinson required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 68th overall pick in the 1975 Draft. In his ten seasons with the team, Robinson accumulated 8.7 WAR and contributed to the 1979 World Series. Of the players on this list, Jeremy Guthrie is the only one who failed to suit up for the Pirates.
CONCLUSION
So do the results here in round three reveal anything in particular? For one, the Oakland Athletics were absent from the list after being the most successful team in terms of finding value within the first two rounds. In round three, the Athletics have found value in 8.47% of their picks which is good for 19th in MLB. While the Athletics outpaced their competition in two crucial rounds of the draft, have we heard the last from them in this series?
We also saw four teams make an appearance in this series for the first time. The Pirates, Braves, Nationals, and Blue Jays all displayed mixed results in the first two rounds but displayed more success here in round three. The Mariners cracked the top five for the second time. While we have only dived into the first three rounds of the draft, it is telling that even with all the success the Mariners have had early on, they have had a tough time getting that first World Series ring. But we do have to remember that the draft is just a small part of what it takes to build a winner. Could it be a result of an inconsistent organizational structure and philosophy? As the Mariners have been through 11 GMs, 5 ownership groups, and 20 Managers. The root cause is unknown so we can only make inferences.
So what separates the top team (Toronto Blue Jays, 18.75% Value) and the bottom team (Arizona Diamondbacks, 3.70% Value)? Both teams have completed successful World Series runs. The Blue Jays have won two (1992 and 1993) while the Diamondbacks have won one (2001). Both teams tend to sit in the middle of the pack in terms of payroll, so they are on an even playing field. While the Blue Jays have edged out the Diamondbacks in terms of value the past few rounds, the Blue Jays have rested in the middle of the pack on average. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have been at the top and bottom. This shows that the Blue Jays are the more consistent team when it comes to drafting within the first three rounds, but it does not help to understand why they perform better than the Diamondbacks here in round three. Since nothing stands out, it could be just a matter of the Blue Jays finding a little more luck. They also could have stronger methods in moving their prospects from a diamond in the rough to a complete ballplayer.
As all the research so far suggests, there is no clear explanation for why a team performs better than another in a specific round. The inferences being made are purely out of speculation based on what the draft profile of each team looks like. However, as the journey continues, we will look to identify if specific teams can sustain their success from one round to the next or if there will be massive turnover leaving us with parity among all 30 MLB teams.
Can you tell how many gm have been on several teams or where they came from