Finding Value in the MLB Draft (Round 6)
Understanding how successful MLB teams have been at finding value with their sixth round picks from the beginning of the draft era to now (1965-Present).
(Image credit: Doug McWilliams/National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum)
Background
Welcome back to the “Finding Value in the MLB Draft” series where I aim to identify which teams have accumulated the most value within a specific round in the draft. In this article, I will dive into round six. With each subsequent round, the overall talent seems to drop but there are plenty of players who came out of this round that put together successful careers. Sal Bando who was drafted 119th overall in the 1965 Draft by the Oakland Athletics leads all players in accumulated WAR within this round (61.5 WAR). The Oakland Athletics not only made out well with this pick but with several others within this round earning them a spot among the top five teams in terms of overall value found. Overall, the average accumulated WAR in round six is 3.87 (a 0.5 increase from round five). However, we see a drop off in the average value found among all 30 MLB teams (6.64% to 6.22%). As we take this analysis one round further, what will I be looking to uncover? After a downward trend in each round’s average WAR, why was there a brief spike in round six? How many new teams will crack the top five? Will the Athletics hold on to their top spot in terms of average value found? Will any teams find no value in this round? As always, I will identify the players on the top five teams who have returned the most value for their respective teams. I hope you enjoy Part 6 of “Finding Value in the MLB Draft!” Note: A player that has an average WAR below 2 is considered a below-average player, a WAR above 2 is an above-average player, and a WAR at or above is 5 is an all-star caliber player.
If you have missed any of the previous articles, you could find them below:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (1965-Present)- 14.29% Value
The Los Angeles Dodgers rank first among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the sixth round. For the Dodgers, this is the first time that they are making an appearance in this series. While they lead the way in this round, other rounds have not been as kind. In rounds one through four, the Dodgers place no higher than 18th among all MLB teams. However, these past few rounds could be a sign of good things to come. In round five, the Dodgers finished sixth among all MLB teams. Overall, the Dodgers’ average value found through six rounds is 10.09% (17th in MLB). A below-average team in terms of finding value thus far. Within round six, the Dodgers have found value in eight of their fifty-six selections. More specifically, the Dodgers have had success when drafting from the 24th slot in this round. The Dodgers have picked from this slot seven times and have found value twice. Matt Kemp (21.4 WAR) and Edwin Jackson (8.9 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (5.66 WAR). In 10 seasons with the Dodgers, Kemp hit .292 with 203 home runs. Throughout his career, he was an average player (2.0 Avg. WAR). Jackson played his first three seasons in a Dodger uniform. In 75 IP, he produced a 5.50 ERA. Throughout his career, he was a below-average player (0.8 Avg. WAR). Some of the other players drafted by the Dodgers within this round include Shane Victorino (31.5 WAR) and Kevin Gausman (17.4 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Dodgers within this round.
Shane Victorino tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Dodgers within this round. Victorino who was the 194th overall pick in the 1999 Draft was traded by the Dodgers before he made his big-league debut. However, he ended up playing one season with the Dodgers. His slash line was .245/.316/.351. Overall, Victorino was an above-average player throughout his career (3.9 Avg. WAR). Elsewhere on this list, Kevin Gausman required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 202nd overall pick in the 2010 Draft. Gausman has yet to play for the Dodgers up to this point in his 10-year career. Nevertheless, he has been an above-average player (2.9 Avg. WAR).
2. Seattle Mariners (1977-Present)- 11.36% Value
The Seattle Mariners rank second among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the sixth round. For the Mariners, this is the third time that they are making an appearance in this series. Previously, they found value in the first and third rounds. Through six rounds, the Mariners’ average value found is 12.45% (5th in MLB). The Mariners have found a ton of value in this portion of the draft. Within round six, the Mariners have found value in five of their forty-four selections. The Mariners have had a knack for finding pitchers in the early rounds (1-10). Of the 245 pitchers that the Mariners have drafted in the early rounds, 85 have made an appearance in the big leagues (11th in MLB). In this round, four of their five value picks have been pitchers. Lance Lynn is one of those pitchers. So far, in 11 seasons, Lynn has been an above-average player (3.7 Avg. WAR) who has two All-Star appearances to his name. However, up to this point, Lynn has failed to play in a game for the Mariners. Initially, he opted not to sign with the Mariners out of high school. Some of the other players drafted by the Mariners within this round include Mike Hampton (28.2 WAR) and Alvin Davis (20.0 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Mariners within this round.
Mike Hampton tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Mariners within this round. Hampton who was the 161st overall pick in the 1990 Draft played in one season with the Mariners. That happened to be the worst season of his career (9.53 ERA in 17 IP). In his next 15 seasons, his ERA was 4.02. Ultimately, Hampton became a below-average player (1.8 Avg. WAR) who earned 2 trips to the All-Star Game. Elsewhere on this list, Joe Mays required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 161st overall pick in the 1994 Draft. Mays was a below-average player throughout his career (1.7 Avg. WAR). He never suited up for the Mariners.
3. Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals (1968-Present)- 11.32% Value
The Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals rank third among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the sixth round. For the Nationals, this is the second time that they are making an appearance in this series. Previously, they found value in round three. Through six rounds, the Nationals’ average value found is 13.60% (2nd in MLB). The Nationals excel at finding value within this portion of the draft. Within round six, the Nationals have found value in six of their fifty-three selections. More specifically, the Nationals have had success when drafting from the fifth slot in this round. The Nationals have picked from this slot twice and found value both times. Larry Lintz (2.8 WAR) and Shawn Hill (1.7 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (1.43 WAR). In three seasons with the Expos, Lintz produced a slash line of .231/.333/.254. Throughout his six-year career, Lintz was a below-average player (1.3 Avg. WAR). In four seasons with the Expos/Nationals, Hill had a 4.93 ERA. Throughout his seven-year career, Hill was also a below-average player (1.3 Avg. WAR). Some of the other players drafted by the Expos/Nationals within this round include Michael A. Taylor (6.6 WAR) and Jose Vidro (17.4 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Expos/Nationals within this round.
Marco Estrada tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Expos/Nationals within this round. Estrada who was the 174th overall pick in the 2005 Draft spent his first two seasons with the Nationals. He mustered together a 7.20 ERA in 20 IP. However, throughout the duration of his career, he put up an ERA of 5.07 in over 1,200 IP. Overall, Estrada was a below-average player throughout his 12-year career (1.7 Avg. WAR). Elsewhere on this list, Greg Colbrunn required the least amount of draft capital as he was the 148th overall pick in the 1987 Draft. In two seasons with the Expos, Colbrunn put together a slash line of .262/.289/.371. Overall, Colbrunn was a below-average player (1.1 Avg. WAR).
4. Oakland Athletics (1965-Present)- 10.71% Value
The Oakland Athletics rank fourth among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the sixth round. For the Athletics, this is the third time that they are making an appearance in this series. This is the first time since round two. Through six rounds, the Athletics’ average value found is 14.07% (1st in MLB). In this part of the draft, the Athletics have done a great job of maximizing each of their picks. Within the sixth round, the Athletics have found value in six of their fifty-six selections. The Athletics have had a knack for drafting first basemen in the early rounds (1-10). Of their thirty-seven drafted first basemen, twenty have made it to the big leagues (2nd in MLB). That sentiment is echoed in this round. Alvin Davis (20.0 WAR) and Scott Spiezio (8.8 WAR) were both primarily first basemen throughout their careers. Davis was initially drafted by the Athletics but opted to go back to school. He would go on to play nine years in the big leagues (none of which were with the Athletics). He was an above-average player (2.7 Avg. WAR). On the other hand, Spiezio put forth a .250/.318/.399 slash line in four seasons with the Athletics. Overall, he was a below-average player during his time in the big leagues (1.1 Avg. WAR). Some of the other players drafted by the Athletics within this round include Sal Bando (61.5 WAR) and Tim Hudson (57.9 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Athletics within this round.
Sal Bando tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Athletics within this round. Bando who was the 119th overall pick in the 1965 Draft spent 11 seasons with the Athletics. During that time he became a 4x All-Star and was an integral part of their historic World Series runs (1972-1974). He also put forth a slash line of .255/.359/.418 to go along with 192 home runs and 796 runs batted in. Overall, Bando was nearly an all-star caliber player (4.9 Avg. WAR).
5. Houston Astros (1965-Present)- 10.71% Value
The Houston Astros rank fifth among all MLB teams in terms of finding the most value within the sixth round. For the Astros, this is the first time that they are making an appearance in this series. Up to this point, the Astros have finished as high as 12th (Round 4) and as low as 27th (Round 5) relative to all MLB teams. Through six rounds, the Astros’ average value found is 9.07% (23rd in MLB). The Astros are a below-average team in terms of finding value in this part of the draft. Within the sixth round, the Astros have found value in six of their fifty-six selections. More specifically, the Astros have had success when drafting from the 23rd slot in this round. The Astros have picked from this slot two times and found value both times. Ben Zobrist (44.5 WAR) and Bud Norris (5.4 WAR) both exceed the average WAR at this draft slot (4.75 WAR). Throughout Zobrist’s 14-year career, he was an above-average player (4.4 Avg. WAR). However, none of that production came with the Astros. Norris was an Astro for five seasons and put forth a 4.33 ERA in that time. Over the course of his 10-year career, Norris was a below-average player (0.6 Avg. WAR). Some of the other players drafted by the Astros within this round include Bill Doran (32.8 WAR) and Enrique Hernandez (15.2 WAR). Below are the players who have created the most value for the Astros within this round.
Ben Zobrist tops the list of players who have created the most value for the Astros within this round. However, after taking Zobrist with the 184th overall pick in the 2004 Draft, the Astros would trade him before he made his big-league debut. Throughout his career, he added numerous accolades to his name. He was a 3x All-Star and a 2x World Series Champion. He also added on a World Series MVP in 2016 while with the Cubs. Overall, his career slash line was .266/.357/.426 to go along with 167 home runs and 768 runs batted in.
CONCLUSION
So, what do the results here in round six reveal? Once again, we see an even mix of teams who have already cracked a top-five once before along with a few new teams to join the party. Up to this point, twenty-two different teams have been a part of this series while eight have yet to show much promise. Those eight include the Padres, Guardians, Royals, Mets, Orioles, Tigers, Rays, and Marlins. Six of these teams are within the bottom ten in terms of average value found through the first six rounds. Except for the Mets and the Padres, each of these teams is also in the bottom half of the league in terms of team payrolls for 2022. Does this correlation have merit? Will any of these teams ever make an appearance in this series?
In addition, the Oakland Athletics continued their dominance by leading the way in terms of average value found through the first six rounds (14.07%). In addition, the Athletics made a return to this series for the first time since round two despite just missing out in a few of the rounds prior. Currently, the Washington Nationals (13.60%) trail the Athletics by a small margin. Will they be able to catch them, or will the Athletics maintain their success going forward?
The Dodgers and Astros cracked a top five for the first time here in round six which is a little surprising considering the pedigree of both teams. The Dodgers have the fourth-highest winning percentage among all MLB teams. In addition, they have 21 National League Pennants (10 within the draft era), and 7 World Series titles (4 within the draft era). Despite failing to crack a top five in any of the previous rounds, the Dodgers have drafted some great players. Clayton Kershaw (Round 1), Chase Utley (Round 2), and Bob Welch (Round 1) are a few of those names. The Astros have the third-highest winning percentage among all MLB teams. In addition, they have 3 American League Pennants, 1 National League Pennant, and 1 World Series. Like the Dodgers, the Astros have also found quality talent within the rounds prior. Craig Biggio (Round 1), Lance Berkman (Round 1), and Luis Gonzalez (Round 4) are a few of those names. While both teams have had successful seasons in recent memory, the Dodgers have sustained their success for a longer period. Do the Astros and Dodgers find an adequate amount of value later in the draft or will this prove to be an outlier?
Back in round five, the St. Louis Cardinals were the first team to find no value in a given round. In round six, a few other teams joined that club. The Rockies, Mets, and Marlins. As previously noted, this should have been expected for the Mets and Marlins as they both have yet to crack a top-five and sit in the bottom ten in terms of average value found. For the Rockies, prior to round six, their average value found was 12.28% (13th in MLB). With their poor performance in round six, their average value found fell to 10.24% (15th in MLB). The Rockies will look to get back into the top five after making the cut back in round two.
Up until round six, we had been seeing a subsequent decline in the average WAR of the drafted players in a given round which was to be expected. However, from round five to six, we saw a slight increase. While the top player (in terms of WAR) in round five bests the top player (in terms of WAR) in round six, more players in round five had a negative impact on their team. Drew Butera (-4.1 WAR) produced the lowest WAR in round five while Jeff Liefer (-2.9 WAR) produced the lowest WAR in round six. Not a huge difference but big enough to influence change. Will the average WAR in a given round fluctuate going forward or will it resume the steady decline?