Forecasting Legends: Building Classification Models to Predict MLB Hall of Famers (Part 6)
In Part 6 of this 7-part series, I examine the Hall of Fame prospects of MLB players (hitters only) after their entire career.
Welcome to part six of "Forecasting Legends: Building Classification Models to Predict MLB Hall of Famers." In this latest installment, I am taking a momentous leap forward by analyzing a player's entire career to predict their potential induction into the prestigious MLB Hall of Fame. Armed with cutting-edge classification models, I am determined to unveil fresh insights that will further refine my ability to foresee the paths of future MLB Hall of Famers.
For those avidly following this captivating series or those seeking a refresher on previous articles, each segment contains invaluable information about my methodology and unwavering dedication to forecasting the next generation of legendary players. Join me as I continue my relentless quest to unravel the secrets behind the road to baseball immortality!
· Entire Career
Model 6- Entire Career
Results
Group 1 included 2,951 records while Group 2 consisted of 1,788 records. After partitioning Group 1, a new dataset of 1,656 records was created (172 of which were placed in the training dataset while 1,484 were placed in the validation set). This data was fed through a Discriminant Analysis classification model as it proved to be the most accurate model of all the ones that were tested. The training set produced an accuracy of 92.44% (159/172) while the validation set produced an accuracy of 91.24% (1,354/1,484). The area under the curve of the validation set is 0.94404.
Group 1
When predicting whether a player would make it into the Hall of Fame, this model does a better job of predicting those that did not end up in the Hall of Fame (based on the validation set). Of the 1,397 players in Group 1 that are not in the Hall of Fame, the model misclassified 113 of them (8.09% error rate).
An example of one of these misclassifications is Moises Alou. Over the course of his 17-year career, he spent time with seven different teams. Overall, Alou produced a WAR of 39.9 (T-255th among players in Group 1) while posting a slash line of .303/.369/.516 with 332 HRs and 1,287 RBIs. He also added 6 All-Star Game appearances and was awarded 2 Silver Sluggers. Statistically, his best season came in 1998 (his eighth season) when he produced a WAR of 6.2 while posting a slash line of .312/.399/.528 with 38 HRs and 124 RBIs. He would finish third in MVP voting. At the conclusion of his career, Alou had a 94.05% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. However, when Alou first became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2014, he failed to receive the required number of votes (1.1% of the vote) to either stay on the ballot or get elected. Unfortunately, Alou’s below-average defense, inability to stay healthy, and failure to produce any signature moments leave him on the outside looking in. [1]
[1] https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/breaking-down-moises-alous-hall-of-fame-candidacy/
On the flip side, of the 87 players in Group 1 that are in the Hall of Fame, 17 were misclassified (19.54%). One example is Roger Bresnahan. Throughout his 17-year career, Bresnahan played with five different teams. Overall, Bresnahan produced a WAR of 41.9 (T-235th among players in Group 1) while posting a slash line of .279/.386/.377 with 26 HRs and 527 RBIs. Other than a World Series victory in 1905 (his seventh season), he didn’t earn any accolades of note. Statistically, his best season came in 1908 (his tenth season) when he produced a WAR of 5.9 while posting a slash line of .283/.401/.359 with 1 HR and 54 RBIs. At the conclusion of his career, Bresnahan had a 20.40% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. After struggling to accumulate the required number of votes to get into the Hall of Fame, Bresnahan would get in via the “Old Timer’s Committee” in 1945. While his overall numbers do not appear to be Hall of Fame worthy, he made some notable contributions to the game. He was the first catcher to wear protective shin guards and developed the first batting helmet. Most notably, he is the only catcher in MLB history to hit an inside-the-park home run twice in one game while batting leadoff.[2]
[2] https://calltothepen.com/2017/02/18/the-curious-hall-of-fame-case-of-roger-bresnahan/
Group 2
This model predicts that 98 players (5.48%) will make it into the Hall of Fame based on the entirety of their career. An example of someone who is no longer active is Paul Konerko. Throughout his 18-year career, he played with three different teams. Overall, Konerko produced a WAR of 28.1 (T-133rd among players in Group 2) while posting a slash line of .279/.354/.486 with 439 HRs and 1,412 RBIs. He was also honored at 6 All-Star Games. Statistically, his best season came in 2010 (his 14th season) when he produced a WAR of 4.7 while posting a slash line of .312/.393/.584 with 39 HRs and 111 RBIs. He finished fifth in MVP voting. At the conclusion of his career, Konerko had a 78.88% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. Konerko first became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2020 but failed to receive the required number of votes to either stay on the ballot or get elected (2.5% of the vote). Unfortunately for Konerko, first base is a deep position and it is continuously getting harder for players to crack the Hall of Fame despite Konerko having similar numbers to many Hall of Famers.[3]
[3] https://southsideshowdown.com/2020/01/26/chicago-white-sox-paul-konerko-hall-fame/
An example of a player who is active is Anthony Rizzo (currently of the New York Yankees). In 12 completed seasons, Rizzo accumulated 39.2 WAR (62nd among players in Group 2). In this time, he produced a slash line of .265/.366/.481 while adding 283 HRs and 889 RBIs. In addition, he had the honor of being recognized at 3 All-Star Games and was awarded 4 Gold Gloves and 1 Silver Slugger. To date, his best season (statistically) came in 2015 (his fifth season) when he accumulated 6.4 WAR while posting a slash line of .278/.387/.512 with 31 HRs and 101 RBIs. He would finish fourth in MVP voting. Currently (amidst his 13th season), Rizzo has an 85.85% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. At the age of 33, it appears he has a few more years left in his career to either strengthen or weaken his case for a spot in the Hall of Fame.
This model also predicts that 1,690 players (94.52%) will not make it into the Hall of Fame. One of those players who is no longer active is Adam Jones. In 14 seasons (with three different teams), Jones accumulated 32.6 WAR (97th among players in Group 2) while posting a slash line of .277/.317/.454 with 282 HRs and 945 RBIs. He also appeared in 5 All-Star Games and was awarded 4 Gold Gloves and 1 Silver Slugger. Statistically, his best season came in 2013 (his eighth season) when he accumulated 4.8 WAR while posting a slash line of .285/.318/.493 with 33 HRs and 108 RBIs. He finished 13th in MVP voting. Currently, Jones has a 46.12% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. Jones will first become eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2025.
An example of a player who is active is Jose Abreu (currently of the Houston Astros). In nine completed seasons, Abreu accumulated 31.8 WAR (109th among players in Group 2). In this time, he produced a slash line of .292/.354/.507 while adding 243 HRs and 863 RBIs. In addition, he had the honor of being recognized at 3 All-Star Games and was awarded an MVP, Rookie of the Year, and 3 Silver Sluggers. To date, his best season (statistically) came in 2014 (his first season) when he accumulated 5.8 WAR while posting a slash line of .317/.383/.581 with 36 HRs and 107 RBIs. He would finish fourth in MVP voting but win Rookie of the Year. Currently (amidst his tenth season), Abreu has a 29.81% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. With Abreu currently in his age 36 season, time is ticking on improving his chances to become a Hall of Famer.
HOF Probabilities from Year 5 to End of Career
As we witnessed in previous installments of this series, certain players embarked on a swift trajectory toward the Hall of Fame, while others encountered significant challenges in solidifying their presence in the major leagues. To gain a deeper understanding of the players who bolstered their chances of entering the Hall of Fame and those who faced hurdles along the way, I will analyze and compare their probabilities after five seasons to their probabilities after their career ends.
Risers
Over the course of his first five seasons, Babe Ruth accumulated 10.1 WAR while posting a slash line of .299/.382/.512 with 20 HRs and 111 RBIs. At this point, he had a 32.38% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. However, his career reached unprecedented heights at the onset of his sixth season. From this point until his retirement, Ruth accumulated 152.1 WAR while posting a slash line of .346/.481/.705 with 694 HRs and 2,103 RBIs. He was also recognized at 2 All-Star Games and took home an MVP. Statistically, his best season came in 1923 (his tenth season) when he accumulated 14.1 WAR while posting a slash line of .393/.545/.764 with 41 HRs and 130 RBIs. At the conclusion of his career (after 22 seasons), Ruth would have a 100.00% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame (a 208.83% increase from when his fifth season ended). Ruth would get elected to the Hall of Fame in 1936 (his first year on the ballot) when he received 95.1% of the vote and will go down as one of the greatest to ever play the game.
Fallers
Through his first five seasons, Travis Shaw accumulated 9.4 WAR while posting a slash line of .243/.327/.451 with 99 HRs and 310 RBIs. He did not earn any notable accolades during this time. At this point, Shaw had a 62.34% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. In his next three seasons, he accumulated -1.0 WAR while posting a slash line of .207/.282/.371 with 15 HRs and 56 RBIs. Statistically, his best season came in 2018 (his fourth season) when he accumulated 4.5 WAR while posting a slash line of .241/.345/.480 with 32 HRs and 86 RBIs. He last played in 2022 and he currently has a 1.22% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame (a 98.05% decrease from when his fifth season ended). Unless he decides to come back to play a few more seasons, Shaw will be ineligible for the Hall of Fame having only played eight seasons.