Forecasting Legends: Building Classification Models to Predict MLB Hall of Famers (Part 4)
In Part 4 of this 7-part series, I examine the Hall of Fame prospects of MLB players (hitters only) after their first 12 seasons.
Welcome to part four of "Forecasting Legends: Building Classification Models to Predict MLB Hall of Famers." In this installment, I am thrilled to present my latest analysis, where I delve deeper into a player's career by considering their first 12 seasons. By leveraging advanced classification models, I aim to uncover new insights that will further enhance my ability to predict the path to the esteemed Hall of Fame.
Whether you have been closely following this series or need a refresher on my previous articles, I invite you to join me on this exciting journey through the captivating world of baseball greatness. Take a moment to explore some of the previous articles below, as each one provides valuable information about my methodology and my relentless quest to forecast the next generation of legendary players.
· First 12 Years
Model 4- First 12 Years
Results
Group 1 included 5,543 records while Group 2 consisted of 843 records. After partitioning Group 1, a new dataset of 2,943 records was created (154 of which were placed in the training dataset while 2,789 were placed in the validation set). This data was fed through a Logistic Regression classification model as it proved to be the most accurate model of all the ones that were tested. The training set produced an accuracy of 94.81% (146/154) while the validation set produced an accuracy of 95.02% (2,650/2,789). The area under the curve of the validation set is 0.97577.
Group 1
When predicting whether a player would make it into the Hall of Fame, this model does a better job of predicting those that did not end up in the Hall of Fame (based on the validation set). Of the 2,711 players in Group 1 that are not in the Hall of Fame, the model misclassified 130 of them (4.80% error rate).
An example of one of these misclassifications is Bernie Williams. Over the first 12 years of his career, Williams produced a WAR of 49.6 (92nd among players in Group 1). During this time, he posted a slash line of .308/.392/.498 to go along with 226 HRs and 998 RBIs. He also appeared in 5 All-Star Games and was awarded 4 Gold Gloves. At the time, this model suggested that he had a 97.43% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. Over the last four seasons of his career, he accumulated 0 WAR while posting a slash line of .263/.346/.412 and adding 61 HRs and 259 RBIs. At the conclusion of his 16-year career, Williams had an 86.77% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame (a 10.94% decrease from when his 12th season ended). Williams first became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2012 but was removed from the ballot a year later as he failed to receive enough votes (The largest percentage of the vote he received was 9.6% in his first year on the ballot).
On the flip side, of the 78 players in Group 1 that are in the Hall of Fame, nine were misclassified (11.54%). One example is Luis Aparicio. In his first 12 seasons, he produced a WAR of 38.7 (T-195th among players in Group 1) while posting a slash line of .258/.305/.341. He added 62 HRs, 528 RBIs, and 435 SBs. He also appeared in 7 All-Star Games, received 7 Gold Gloves, and took home Rookie of the Year. At the time, this model suggested that he had a 24.26% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. In his final six seasons, he accumulated 17.1 WAR with a slash line of .271/.324/.345 while adding 21 HRs, 263 RBIs, and 71 SBs. He added three more All-Star Game appearances and one more Gold Glove during this time. After 18 consistent seasons, he had a 99.55% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame (a 310.39% increase from when his 12th season ended). Aparicio was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1984 (his sixth year on the ballot) when he received 84.6% of the vote.
Group 2
This model predicts that 97 players (11.51%) will make it into the Hall of Fame based on their first 12 seasons. An example of someone who is no longer active is Justin Upton. In his first 12 seasons, he accumulated 34.8 WAR (61st among players in Group 2) while posting a slash line of .268/.348/.478 with 286 HRs and 897 RBIs. He was honored at 4 All-Star Games and was awarded 3 Silver Sluggers. This model suggested that he had an 81.66% chance of making it into the Hall of Fame at the time. In his final four seasons, he accumulated -2.5 WAR to go along with a slash line of .205/.296/.400. Towards the end of his career, Upton struggled to stay on the field. Currently, he has a 79.94% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame (a 2.10% decrease from the time his 12th season ended). Upton last played in 2022 so if that was his final season (he has not officially retired yet), he will first be eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2028.
An example of a player who is active is DJ LeMahieu (currently of the New York Yankees). He completed his 12th season in 2022. He accumulated 30.2 WAR (84th among players in Group 2) to go along with a slash line of .297/.356/.418 in this time. He also added 107 HRs and 581 RBIs. In addition, he had the honor of being recognized at 3 All-Star Games and was awarded 4 Gold Gloves. This model suggested that LeMahieu had a 75.21% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame based on his first 12 seasons of work. If his career were to end today, he would have a 68.81% chance of getting in.
This model also predicts that 746 players (88.49%) will not make it into the Hall of Fame. One of those players who is no longer active is Edwin Encarnacion. Through 12 seasons, Encarnacion accumulated 28.4 WAR (T-95th among players in Group 2) with a slash line of .266/.352/.498. He added 310 HRs and 942 RBIs. He was also honored at 3 All-Star Games. At that point, this model gave Encarnacion a 49.00% chance of making it into the Hall of Fame. In his final four seasons, he accumulated 7.1 WAR while posting a slash line of .241/.344/.489 with 114 HRs and 319 RBIs. While Encarnacion was a dominant force in the middle of the order for many years, his overall numbers do not jump off the page. Currently, Encarnacion has a 71.22% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame (a 45.35% increase from when his 12th season ended). Encarnacion will first become eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2026.
What about active players? Charlie Blackmon (currently of the Colorado Rockies) completed his 12th season in 2022. In that time, he accumulated 19.3 WAR (170th among players in Group 2) while posting a .297/.354/.488 slash line with 207 HRs and 709 RBIs. This model suggested that Blackmon had a 14.39% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame based on his first 12 seasons of work. He clearly has some work to do if he wants to be on the Hall of Fame radar because if his career were to end today, he would have an 29.34% chance of getting in.
HOF Probabilities from Year 5 to Year 12
As we witnessed in previous installments of this series, certain players embarked on a swift trajectory toward the Hall of Fame, while others encountered significant challenges in solidifying their presence in the major leagues. To gain a deeper understanding of the players who bolstered their chances of entering the Hall of Fame and those who faced hurdles along the way, I will analyze and compare their probabilities after five seasons to their probabilities after twelve seasons.
Risers
Over the course of his first five seasons, Justin Turner struggled to establish himself as an MLB player. In this time, he accumulated 0.6 WAR while posting a slash line of .260/.323/.362 with 8 HRs and 89 RBIs. His odds of getting into the Hall of Fame at this point were slim (4.85%). However, everything changed for Turner when he joined the third team of his young career, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Over the next seven years of his career, Turner accumulated 28.4 WAR while posting a slash line of .302/.382/.503 with 116 HRs and 406 RBIs. He was also recognized at his first All-Star Game during this time. At the conclusion of his 12th season, Turner would have a 64.06% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame (a 1220.39% increase from when his fifth season ended). Turner recently completed his 14th season at the end of 2022, and he is still thriving in the big leagues. He currently has a 38.38% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame.
Fallers
Through his first five seasons, Ozzie Guillen accumulated 13.7 WAR while posting a slash line of .263/.285/.330 with 6 HRs and 224 RBIs. He was also honored at 1 All-Star Game and received Rookie of the Year. At this point, Guillen had a 96.30% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. In his next seven seasons, he accumulated 6.9 WAR while posting a slash line of .271/.289/.348 with 14 HRs and 289 RBIs. His odds of making it into the Hall of Fame were now at 1.37% (a 98.57% decrease from when his fifth season ended). At the conclusion of his 16-year career, Guillen had a 38.35% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. Guillen first became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2006 but failed to receive enough votes to stay on the ballot the following year.