The Matchup Matrix: Part 4
Using Plane Points to uncover which hitters and pitchers truly have each other’s number
Trevor Story vs. Max Fried
In part four of this series, we take a closer look at a notable intra-division matchup: Trevor Story of the Boston Red Sox versus Max Fried of the New York Yankees. While this wasn’t their first time facing off, 2025 marked the first season they shared a division, giving us a more concentrated look at their head-to-head battles.
Head-to-Head History
Story and Fried matched up 12 times across four games in 2025, with Fried clearly getting the better of the exchanges. Since 2015, they’ve faced each other 20 times over seven games, with their last meeting prior to 2025 coming in 2019. Fried has generally had the upper hand in this matchup, but that dominance was especially evident this past season.
2025 Stats: Story went 2-for-12 with six strikeouts.
Pre-2025 Stats: Story was 3-for-7 with three extra-base hits and four RBIs.
While past matchups offer some context, both players have evolved significantly since 2019. So, the focus here is on their 2025 encounters.
Plane Points Perspective
From a Plane Points standpoint, Story averaged -59.13 PP/G against Fried in 2025, his worst mark against any pitcher with at least 10 plate appearances. It was also the second-lowest PP/G of any hitter-pitcher pairing in the league. Since 2015, it ranks as Story’s third least favorable matchup, trailing only José Berríos and Chris Paddack.
For Fried, Story was his fourth most favorable matchup in 2025, behind Christopher Morel, Jarren Duran, and Nick Fortes.
Platoon Splits & Approach
Typically, right-handed hitters have an edge against left-handed pitchers. Story’s 2025 splits were fairly neutral as he hit .258 vs. lefties and .265 vs. righties. Historically, though, he’s been better against lefties (.291 career) than righties (.255).
Fried’s approach against Story leaned heavily on secondary pitches. Of the 46 pitches Story saw, most were curveballs and changeups, consistently located down and away. Fried also left a few pitches in hittable zones but managed to avoid damage.
Interestingly, Fried used to rely more on his four-seam fastball in earlier matchups, especially before joining the Yankees. While he still mixed in curveballs and changeups back then, they weren’t nearly as refined as they are now.
Pitch-by-Pitch Breakdown
Fried found success with nearly every pitch he threw to Story. Most notably, five of Story’s 12 plate appearances ended on curveballs, including four strikeouts.
Story struggled with curveballs all season, hitting just .200 with two extra-base hits. Against left-handed curveballs specifically, he went 2-for-16.
Since 2021, Story has hit just .146 against breaking balls from lefties (13-for-89), a sharp decline from his .333 mark in 2021. Fried’s curveball, meanwhile, was elite as hitters batted just .190 against it, and it featured nearly six feet of vertical drop, ranking among the top five in MLB for lefties, in terms of vertical drop.
Fried’s cutter was another weapon, especially against righties. It was his highest-graded pitch by Baseball Savant’s run value, with opponents hitting just .225 against it. Oddly, he didn’t use it much against Story—likely because Story hit cutters well in 2025, going 11-for-27 overall and 4-for-8 vs. lefty cutters, including a hit off Fried on a cutter well out of the zone.
A Game to Forget: September 13, 2025
Story’s worst outing against Fried came on September 13, when he posted -83 Plane Points, his fourth-worst single-game performance of the season and sixth-worst over the past three years. For Fried, it was his 12th-best performance against any hitter in 2025.
In that game:
Story went 0-for-4 overall, 0-for-3 vs. Fried with one strikeout.
He saw 14 pitches across three plate appearances, including two 5+ pitch at-bats.
None of the plate appearances were productive: one strikeout on three pitches, a weak chopper (76.4 mph EV, .060 xBA), and reached on a throwing error from Fried (another chopper).
He fell behind in the count in all three matchups, limiting his ability to generate quality contact.
Looking Ahead
Story got a full dose of the new-and-improved Max Fried in 2025, a season where Fried was dominant across the board. With Story’s future team still uncertain, it’s unclear how often these two will face off again. But if they do, Story will need to adjust his approach to gain the upper hand in what was a lopsided matchup in 2025.
All external data courtesy of Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference