The Matchup Matrix: Part 2
Using Plane Points to uncover which hitters and pitchers truly have each other’s number
Otto Lopez vs. Jesús Luzardo
In part two of this series, I take a closer look at another intra-division matchup between Otto Lopez of the Miami Marlins and Jesús Luzardo of the Philadelphia Phillies. Once upon a time, these two players were teammates in Miami. Because of that, Lopez never faced Luzardo prior to the 2025 season. That changed this year, and the results have been one-sided.
During the 2025 season, Lopez and Luzardo faced each other 12 times across four games, and Luzardo has had the upper hand.
Lopez averaged -64.44 Plane Points per game against Luzardo, the lowest among any matchup pairing in 2025 and the sixth lowest among all matchups since 2015 (minimum 10 plate appearances). Across all matchup data since 2015, this stands as Lopez’s least successful matchup and Luzardo’s most dominant.
In traditional terms, Lopez is 1-for-12 with four strikeouts and one double play against Luzardo. Before diving deeper into the matchup, it is important to understand the broader context. Lopez struggled against left-handed pitching throughout 2025, and this was not a one-season issue. The same pattern appeared in 2024. Against right-handed pitching, Lopez has performed much better, a classic example of a hitter showing reverse platoon splits.
In 2025, there were 142 right-handed hitters with at least 100 plate appearances against both lefties and righties. Among them, Lopez posted the sixth-lowest batting average against left-handed pitchers.
He also tied for the third-largest difference between his batting averages against righties and lefties. His teammate Connor Norby showed an even more extreme version of this reverse split.
How Luzardo Attacks Lopez
Lopez has seen 44 pitches from Luzardo, most of them changeups, sweepers, and four-seam fastballs, which mirrored Luzardo’s typical approach against right-handed hitters in 2025. The bottom of the strike zone has been a consistent point of attack. Of those 44 pitches, 24 were located in the lower third or below, and 17 of those 24 were either sweepers or changeups.
Those two pitches were Luzardo’s most effective offerings according to Baseball Savant’s run value metric. His sweeper was tied for the best in MLB in 2025 alongside Garrett Crochet.
Interestingly, the sweeper itself has not been the main issue for Lopez. He hit .295 (13-for-44) against sweepers in 2025 and went 0-for-1 with a strikeout against Luzardo’s version. The real problem has been the changeup. Lopez hit just .132 (9-68) with 17 strikeouts against changeups this year, a number that drops to .108 (4-37) when facing left-handed pitchers. Among hitters with at least 20 plate appearances ending on a lefty changeup, that was the sixth lowest batting average in 2025.
Against Luzardo’s changeup specifically, Lopez is 0-for-6 with one strikeout.
Lopez’s Worst Outing of 2025
Lopez’s first look at Luzardo in April 2025 was also his worst. He scored -100 Plane Points, his lowest single-game total against any pitcher this season. Two of his three worst performances in 2025 came against Luzardo.
Over the past two seasons, only his -109.75 Plane Points against MacKenzie Gore in June 2024 rated lower.
For Luzardo, only Tyler Soderstrom and Josh Bell produced fewer points in a single game against him in 2025.
Breaking Down the April Struggles
So why did Plane Points rate that April matchup so poorly? For starters, Lopez saw only eight pitches total across three plate appearances, which lasted four, two, and two pitches respectively. Each ended in a groundout.
Plane Points rewards not just outcomes, but the process leading to them. It accounts for count control, quality contact, and performance in key moments. Lopez fell short in all three areas. In two plate appearances, he fell behind early and never recovered. He also had two opportunities with runners in scoring position but failed to capitalize.
The result was a combination of poor count leverage, missed chances in clutch spots, and minimal overall productivity, which led to the -100 Plane Point performance, his lowest single-game total of 2025.
Below is one of those key plate appearances where Lopez failed to deliver with a runner on base.
Looking Ahead
As long as these two remain in the same division, Lopez will have more chances to face Luzardo and attempt to turn things around. For Luzardo, the goal will be to maintain control of what has been his most favorable matchup to date.
All external data courtesy of Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference