Plane Points: Part 1 (Hitters)
A brand new scoring system that is designed to evaluate and rank hitters across MLB...
Across the entire sports landscape, we can find a variety of metrics and systems that either assess the value of a player (WAR) or grade a player (PFF). While each methodology has subtle nuances, the purpose of providing this information is to find a way to stack up players in a league against one another from a statistical perspective to determine who belongs amongst the best of the best. Many of these metrics and systems are now huge deciding factors in who makes the All-Star Game, who wins awards, and who gets into the Hall of Fame. After reading a little about how Pro Football Focus (PFF) designed its grading system for NFL players, I decided to apply some of what I learned to MLB. With the help of Baseball Savant, I developed a points system that spits out point values for players on a per-game and season-long basis. Plane Points, as I like to call it, looks at both MLB players' hitting and pitching aspects (sorry, no fielding is being considered here). For this article, I will focus on hitting. Plane Points move away from the traditional counting stats and focus more on what we see in some of the expected stats out there such as xBA and xWOBA. Overall, the goal of Plane Points is to capture aspects of a player’s production profile that may not be a part of some of the popular catch-all statistics currently at our disposal while ultimately figuring out who the best players in the game are at a given point in time.
How Does it Work?
Players can earn or lose points across 93 different categories (The full list of categories can be found at the end of this article) based on events that happen during or as a result of each plate appearance. Certain categories are weighted more or less than others based on how I view that category impacting a player’s overall production. For example, a player can gain eight points if he produces an exit velocity of at least 106 mph on a ball in play while a player can lose four points if he produces an exit velocity of 46.9 mph or less. By the conclusion of a game, a player is assigned a point value that is a sum of all his gains and losses. This system keeps track of all points scored in both regular and postseason games. Let’s look at an example.
On July 16th, 2023 against the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox 1B Triston Casas went 1-1 with 1 HR and 2 RBIs. On the surface, this was a pretty good day at the plate for Casas albeit a small sample size. My scoring system not only looks at things you can see with the naked eye but also some of the advanced metrics that either back up or refute those numbers portrayed in the box score. Casas earned 89.25 points in this game. To put this into context, the average number of points scored in a game in 2023 was 9.80. Here is a breakdown of the points that Casas either gained or lost from this game:
Productive Game: 20
Flyball (>= .752 xBA): 10
Runs Generated: 20
Barrel: 10
Home Run: 12
Start Ahead and Finish Ahead in Count (Productive PA): 5
Hit with Two Outs: 5
Hard Hit (95-105.9 mph): 4
Productive PA vs Opposite Handedness Pitcher: 2
Start Ahead in Count: 1
Swing Inside of Strike Zone: 1
Ball: 1
Ahead in Count: 0.25
Productive PA in 4 Pitches or Less: -2
To better understand what Casas did throughout this game, click on this link. It will direct you to Baseball Savant’s Gamefeed for this game: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=717376
Results- Top 25 (2023)
These are the top 25 players on a Plane Points per Game (PP/G) basis from the 2023 MLB season (To qualify, a player must have accumulated at least 340 plate appearances in the 2023 regular season). I will also compare my scoring system rankings to where these players rank based on Weighted On-base Average (wOBA). wOBA is generally regarded as a great way to determine a hitter’s overall offensive value. Keep in mind, that there will be some slight deviations due to my system also baking in what is expected from a player based on how they perform on a nightly basis.
There are going to be some disparities between my system and any other system. To better understand my system, let’s look at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2023 campaign to see why my system likes him so much. 62.69% (2,720 PP) of Guerrero’s points came from having productive games throughout the season. This ranked 15th among all MLB hitters. A productive game is one in which a player has at least one plate appearance that ends with him getting on base and/or a run scoring. In 158 games, Guerrero had 136 productive games. Guerrero also has a knack for hitting the ball hard. 32.45% (1,408 PP) of his points came via a ball that was put in play at 95 mph or greater. Guerrero had 99 balls in play that reached at least 106 mph. While a .789 OPS is surely a down season for someone like Guerrero, some of my findings suggest that the ball did not often bounce his way. This is even more evident in the fact that his xBA and xWOBA were both 30 points higher than his actual numbers.
Results- Best Games of 2023
Now that I looked at the most productive players throughout the 2023 season, let’s break it down even further to see which players were a part of the five best offensive showings of the 2023 season based on total PP (These are viewed in the aggregate because it’s a singular game):
1.     Adolis GarcÃa (April 22nd, 2023 vs Rangers)
Stat Line: 5-5, 2 2B, 3 HR, 5 R, 8 RBI
Plane Points: 283
2.     Adam Duvall (April 1st, 2023 vs Orioles)
Stat Line: 4-5, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 R, 5 RBI
Plane Points: 281.75
3.     Ian Happ (April 14th, 2023 vs Dodgers)
Stat Line: 4-4, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 R, 3 RBI, 1 BB
Plane Points: 262.25
4.     Adolis GarcÃa (October 27th, 2023 vs Diamondbacks, WS)
Stat Line: 3-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Plane Points: 250
5.     Austin Riley (July 18th, 2023 vs Diamondbacks)
Stat Line: 3-5, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 R, 7 RBI, 1 SO
Results- By Category (2023)
Finally, we will look at the leaders across several key categories (positive and negative) that are a part of this scoring system (PP/G will be used here):
Go Ahead Hit (5th Inning or Later): 3B Jose Ramirez (1.41 PP/G)
Productive PA in More Than 4 Pitches: OF Juan Soto (4.63 PP/G)
Productive PA with RISP: C Will Smith (5.50 PP/G)
Productive Game: OF Yordan Alvarez (18.40 PP/G)
Barrel: OF Aaron Judge (6.23 PP/G)
Unproductive Game: SS Paul DeJong (-8.18 PP/G)
Unproductive PA with RISP: 3B Max Muncy (-6.43 PP/G)
Unproductive PA in 4 or Less Pitches: C Keibert Ruiz (-10.99 PP/G)
Weak: OF TJ Friedl (-2.45 PP/G)
Unproductive PA with Bases Loaded and Less Than 2 Outs: C Jake Rogers (-1.39 PP/G)
Conclusion
The best is yet to come for the Plane Points Scoring System. Stay tuned for my next article where I will be covering pitchers. In addition, with the 2024 MLB Season upon us, check out my Twitter @rosey_jett or Instagram @the.statman where I will be posting the point values for select players nightly. You will also be able to find up-to-date season leaderboards as well as leaders for each of the different categories. At some point in the season, I will also make all the data available via a Power BI dashboard where you will be able to find the breakdown of points for a player in a specific game, running totals/averages for each player, and so much more.
Categories Used
Some things to keep in mind when reviewing this list:
A player is considered productive when he either reaches base or contributes to scoring a run during his plate appearance.
A productive game means a player recorded at least one productive plate appearance.
A player is considered unproductive if he reaches base via an error, fails to reach base at all, or does not contribute to a run being scored.
An unproductive game means a player failed to record at least one productive plate appearance.
A run that is generated from a plate appearance is any run that scores because of the player at the plate regardless of whether the scorer gave that player an RBI.
Baseball Savant classifies each ball in play as a specific launch speed/angle zone based on the batter’s launch angle and exit velocity. This is the order from the most optimal batted ball type to the least optimal batted ball type for a hitter: Barrel, Solid, Flare/Burner, Under, Topped, and Weak.
A batter must face more than 1 pitch during a plate appearance to be considered ahead, behind, or even in the count.
Keep in mind many of these categories work on a per-pitch/plate appearance basis. Others are awarded just for the game.
great way to look at the stats looking forward to season and the next newsletter