Plane Points: MLB Lineup Optimizer (NL West)
Tracking how Plane Points and evolving player performance have reshaped optimal NL West lineups since Opening Day...
We now move into part five of this series, focusing on how changes in player performance and roster movement since the start of the season have shaped current lineups with the help of my MLB Lineup Optimizer powered by Plane Points. If you would like to revisit earlier installments or learn more about the inputs used in this optimizer, you can find them below:
Part 1: Update & NL East
Part 2: AL East
Part 3: NL Central
Part 4: AL Central
The NL West is highlighted by the defending champion and current division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. While the Dodgers saw limited action at the trade deadline, there have been notable shifts in player performance worth discussing. The San Diego Padres, meanwhile, were active at the deadline, primarily bolstering the back end of their bullpen while also adding key hitters to lengthen their lineup. The San Francisco Giants made their major move earlier, acquiring Rafael Devers, while the Arizona Diamondbacks parted ways with several key players. Finally, the Colorado Rockies continue to struggle as they work to identify which pieces will be part of their future. Collectively, these personnel moves and changes in performance have had a significant impact on the division’s current optimal lineups.
Color Key for Lineup Movement
🟩 Moved Up
🟥 Moved Down
🟦 New to the lineup
The lineups below show the optimized configurations generated on Opening Day and as of today using the generic model. These are not the actual lineups used in games, but rather the ones the optimizer would have recommended based on the available data at each point in time. When referencing player performance in the sections below, whether overall or for a specific attribute, rankings are based on the average number of Plane Points per game (PP/G) within that specific split and within the context of active players on the team.
Los Angeles Dodgers
vs. RHP
Excluded: Max Muncy, Chris Taylor
Will Smith – Takes over the leadoff spot, ranking 1st in productive plate appearances of 5+ pitches and 3rd in pitches seen per plate appearance.
Andy Pages – Slots into the 5-hole, ranking 4th in productive plate appearances with runners in scoring position and runs generated.
Mookie Betts – Moves down to the 6-hole. He is averaging 3 PP/G this season (6th on team) after averaging 28 PP/G across the last three years.
vs. LHP
Excluded: Tommy Edman, Max Muncy, Michael Conforto
Alex Call – Deadline acquisition excelling in this split, ranking 1st in productive plate appearances with runners in scoring position.
Freddie Freeman – Production has dipped slightly, averaging 3 PP/G this season (7th on team) compared to 17 PP/G over the last three years.
San Diego Padres
vs. RHP
Excluded: Luis Arraez, Elias Díaz, Jose Iglesias
Ryan O’Hearn – Deadline acquisition who profiles well as a leadoff hitter, ranking 1st in productive plate appearances of 5+ pitches and 2nd in walks.
Jake Cronenworth – Slides down to the 6-hole. Averaging 6 PP/G this season (7th on team) after averaging 11 PP/G the previous three years.
Luis Arraez – Surprisingly excluded, averaging -7 PP/G this season (12th on team) after averaging 21 PP/G across the last three years.
vs. LHP
Excluded: Yuli Gurriel, José Iglesias, Luis Arraez, Elias Díaz
Ramón Laureano – Strong in this split, averaging 10 PP/G this season (3rd on team).
Gavin Sheets – Despite no platoon edge, bats in the middle of the order thanks to ranking 1st in productive plate appearances with runners in scoring position.
Freddy Fermin – Deadline addition who edges out Elias Díaz. Averaging -3 PP/G this season (9th on team), still better than Díaz at -12 PP/G (worst on team).
Arizona Diamondbacks
vs. RHP
Excluded: Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, Gabriel Moreno, Randal Grichuk
James McCann – Midseason pickup who has earned a starting role, averaging 7 PP/G (4th on team).
Pavin Smith – Profiles as a middle-of-the-order option, ranking 5th in the power component behind Marte, Gurriel Jr., Perdomo, and Carroll.
vs. LHP
Excluded: Eugenio Suárez, Randal Grichuk, Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy, Josh Naylor
Corbin Carroll – Breakout in this split, averaging 10 PP/G this season (3rd on team) compared to 2 PP/G the last three years.
Geraldo Perdomo – On-base skills shine, ranking 4th in productive plate appearances of 5+ pitches and walks, and 2nd in times ahead in the count.
Blaze Alexander – Producing in clutch situations, ranking 1st in barrels and 2nd in extra-base hits.
Colorado Rockies
vs. RHP
Excluded: Kris Bryant, Ryan McMahon, Sean Bouchard, Michael Toglia
Tyler Freeman – A bright spot in this split, averaging 12 PP/G (2nd on team).
Jordan Beck – Emerging as a leadoff option, ranking 3rd in productive plate appearances of 5+ pitches, 3rd in walks, and 2nd in pitches seen per PA.
Kyle Karros – In a limited sample (32 PA), averaging 12 PP/G (3rd on team).
vs. LHP
Excluded: Kris Bryant, Ryan McMahon, Sean Bouchard, Michael Toglia
Brenton Doyle – Big improvement, averaging 12 PP/G this year (3rd on team) after -1 PP/G across the last three years.
Braxton Fulford – Limited sample (25 PA), but averaging 17 PP/G (1st on team) and ranks 3rd in runs generated.
San Francisco Giants
vs. RHP
Excluded: LaMonte Wade Jr., Matt Chapman, Mike Yastrzemski, Tyler Fitzgerald
Rafael Devers – Seamlessly integrated, averaging 25 PP/G (1st on team).
Christian Koss – Not a traditional middle-order bat, but ranks 1st in productive plate appearances with runners in scoring position and 2nd in runs generated.
Willy Adames – Strong leadoff profile, ranking 2nd in productive plate appearances of 5+ pitches, 2nd in walks, and 3rd in pitches seen per PA.
vs. LHP
Excluded: Matt Chapman, Tyler Fitzgerald, LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Matos, Mike Yastrzemski
Casey Schmitt – Thriving in this split, ranking 3rd in productive plate appearances with runners in scoring position and 3rd in extra-base hits.
Matt Chapman – Currently injured, but otherwise would slot comfortably into the 2-hole, averaging 13 PP/G this season.
Again. My favorite! Regarding lineups!!!